Uruguay v Brazil: Prediction, Tips and Odds

Partner Authors Updated: 06 Jul 24 11:54

Uruguay have a perfect record at the 2024 Copa America with three wins in three games ahead of a tantalising quarter-final showdown with nine-time winners Brazil in Paradise, Nevada.

Brazil also emerged from the group stages unbeaten but have managed just one win and had to settle for second spot in Group D behind Colombia.

Uruguay v Brazil

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Uruguay v Brazil betting tips and predictions

Uruguay to win - 2/1

Brazil go into this game as the marginal favourites at 8/5, but there are plenty of reasons to feel Uruguay could pull off what would be a minor upset here.

Marcelo Bielsa has forged his La Celeste side into an effective unit at both ends of the pitch, as they look solid defensively and lethal in attack.

Uruguay have scored nine goals and conceded just once in their three Copa America assignments so far and the goal they conceded came against Panama when the game was already effectively over, as they led 3-0 going into the final minute of additional time.

Bielsa’s side have won their last four games and going back further they have seven wins in their last 10, losing just once. That run includes a 2-0 win over the Selecao in a World Cup qualifier in Montevideo in October of last year.

Brazil have struggled to get going at the Copa America and they were held to a 0-0 draw by Costa Rica in their opener.

A 4-1 win over Paraguay followed, but in their final game they were perhaps lucky to claim a point in a 1-1 draw with Colombia as Los Cafeteros saw a goal chalked off for offside.

Brazil are missing their star forward Vinicius Junior due to suspension and coach Dorival Junior says his side will have to “learn” to play without the Real Madrid man, which may prove to be too big of an ask against Uruguay’s formidable backline.

Uruguay will have to be at their best to win this tie in 90 minutes even against an understrength Brazil, but at 2/1 the joint-record 15-time Copa America winners look worth backing.

Bruno Guimaraes to be booked - 15/8

Brazil midfielder Bruno Guimaraes picked up his first booking of the competition in the 1-1 draw with Colombia in the final round of group games but is perhaps lucky to have escaped further punishment.

Bruno is averaging a hefty 3.7 fouls-per-game in the USA and has committed four in each of his last two games.

The 26-year-old was booked nine times in 37 Premier League games for Newcastle last season and picked up a further five cards across the rest of the competitions the Magpies were involved in, so he looks the standout pick to be booked as Brazil come up against Uruguay.

Darwin Nunez to score with a header - 9/1

Darwin Nunez opened the scoring with a headed goal when Uruguay overcame Brazil 2-0 in a World Cup qualifier last year and at a price of 17/2, he looks an interesting option to repeat that trick in this last-eight tie.

Nunez is averaging an impressive 4.3 shots-per-game at the Copa America and that includes exactly one shot per-game with his head, so the stats suggest he will be a threat in the air against Brazil.