Inter Milan have won three of the last six Scudetti, and Racing Post football expert Alex Wrigley is tipping them to secure back-to-back Serie A titles this season.
No side since Juventus in 2019/20 has successfully defended the Scudetto and Cristian Chivu has a host of adaptations to make after a summer of change.
Fortunately for the 45-year-old, the Nerazzurri's title rivals have their own issues to deal with, and last year's 11-point winning margin makes them hard to ignore in the outright betting.
Contents Table
Serie A Tips and Predictions
Outright Prediction: Inter Milan to win Serie A (1/1)
Alternative Tip: Lautaro Martinez to be top goalscorer (11/4)
Dark Horse Tip: Roma to win Serie A (9/1)
Opening Weekend Fixtures
Inter Milan v Monza (Saturday, 17:30)
Udinese v Como (Saturday, 17:30)
Genoa v Napoli (Saturday, 19:45)
Parma v Cagliari (Saturday, 19:45)
Frosinone v Juventus (Sunday, 17:30)
Venezia v Lecce (Sunday, 17:30)
Atalanta v Sassuolo (Sunday, 19:45)
Torino v AC Milan (Sunday, 19:45)
Bologna v Lazio (Monday, 17:30)
Roma v Fiorentina (Monday, 19:45)
Serie A Favourites
Chivu won Serie A with Inter Milan just 18 months after his senior managerial career began at Parma.
After a dominant season from the Nerazzurri, it is no surprise to see them so short to win successive titles.
Behind Inter, it is a close three-horse race between Napoli, Juventus and AC Milan, with these four teams representing the winner of every Serie A title since 2000/01.
The 2000/01 champions, Roma, also come into play, but there is a long drop-off to fifth-favourites Como.
Top Goalscorer Favourites
Lautaro Martinez has won two of the last three Serie A Golden Boots and is priced as favourite to become the 11th player to win three Capocannoniere awards.
AC Milan's big-money signing Goncalo Ramos is second favourite, but he scored just 27 Ligue 1 goals in three seasons with PSG, while Roma's Donyell Malen is a relatively distant third despite netting just three fewer goals than Martinez.
Further down the pecking order, Marcus Thuram, Rasmus Hojlund, Anastasios Douvikas, Randal Muani and Moise Kean are all priced at shorter than 20/1.
Data-Led Serie A Predictions & Analytics
When diving deeper into potential outcomes, advanced metrics like xGF (expected goals for) and clean sheet percentage give a more predictive edge than headline form.
Here's what the data tells us about the leading contenders:
Inter Milan registered 12.89 more expected goals than second-place Juventus last season.
Of players who made more than 10 appearances, Donyell Malen had a league-leading 0.90 expected goals per 90 minutes.
Despite surviving in 17th place, Lecce registered fewer expected points than any other Serie A team.
Lecce also registered the second-lowest expected goals tally with 37.23.
Federico Dimarco averaged 0.77 combined expected goals and expected assists per 90 minutes last season.
Serie A Outright Prediction
Inter Milan may be dealing with the departures of a host of defenders, including Denzel Dumfries, Stefan de Vrij, Francesco Acerbi and Matteo Darmian.
However, the arrivals of Djed Spence and John Stones should help bolster the back line, and Chivu can take advantage of the instability elsewhere.
Cross-city rivals AC Milan have put their hopes on the shoulders of Ruben Amorim, who will be relying on £60-million man Ramos, who scored just 27 league goals in three seasons with PSG.
Napoli have also seen a change in the dugout, with Massimiliano Allegri replacing Antonio Conte. Allegri's recent Serie A stints with Juventus and AC Milan have been underwhelming, considering his burgeoning trophy cabinet.
He won the title in five successive years with Juventus between 2014/15 and 2018/19, but a dismal recruitment record has left the Old Lady playing catch-up. That shows little sign of ending after they were obligated to spend £37m on Lois Openda in the summer, who has since been loaned out to Lyon and replaced by Kolo Muani, who has scored 17 league goals in his last 82 appearances.
Inter may not enjoy last season's dominance, but they have more than enough ability to top the charts again. They have proven star quality in Martinez and arguably the world's greatest wing-back in Dimarco, who contributed seven goals and 17 assists last term.
Alternative Tip
Thirty-nine players have scored more Serie A goals than Lautaro Martinez, but if the Inter Milan striker keeps up his current form, he could find himself climbing the ranks significantly over the next year.
He won the Capocannoniere award for the second time in three seasons last term with 17 goals, and he has scored at least 15 league goals in five of his last six seasons with Inter.
The 28-year-old topped the expected goals chart in both 2023/24 and 2025/26 and is the only active Serie A player to have won the top goalscorer award.
Dark Horses to Watch
Gian Piero Gasperini led Roma to their best Serie A finish since 2017/18 last season, and they look like the most likely side to upset the pecking order after a relatively productive summer.
Malen has been signed permanently from Aston Villa after scoring 14 goals in just 18 appearances following his January arrival, helping Roma to a fantastic second half of the season.
They have splashed the cash on Bologna's exciting young attacker Santiago Castro, while Konstantinos Koulierakis and Nahuel Molina add depth to an already solid defensive unit.
With other contenders seemingly taking a step backwards, Roma have a chance for another strong season.
Who Wins Serie A?
While Roma do look good value, it is still difficult to see any side bridging Inter's 11-point advantage from last season.
The Nerazzurri may have suffered some big-name losses at the back, but they were the best team in the division by some distance in 2025/26.
They have also retained the likes of Martinez and Dimarco, while replacing the ageing departees with players ready for the first team.
AC Milan could be a threat if their gambles pay off, but that is a big if, and the other big hitters simply look too far off the pace.
Read more football betting tips and predictions on site.
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
