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Real Madrid v RB Leipzig: Tips, predictions & odds

Real Madrid, the 14-time European champions, have one foot in the quarter-finals of this year's Champions League after securing a priceless 1-0 win in Leipzig in the first leg of their round of 16 tie.

The pair meet again at the Bernabeu on Wednesday and Los Blancos' class could tell in the Spanish capital.

Real Madrid v RB Leipzig

Real Madrid v RB Leipzig tips and predictions

Real Madrid & Under 3.5 Goals @ 7/4

Real Madrid took the sting out of this last 16 tie by winning the first leg in Leipzig 1-0 courtesy of Brahim Diaz's 48th minute goal.

Carlo Ancelotti's men are now 1/12 to qualify for the last eight and given their historic mastery of managing these situations - they've qualified 19 times out of 20 from ties in which they won the first leg - it's a brave man who bets against them finishing the job at the Bernabeu.

Leipzig will, at some point, have to take some risks in the Spanish capital but the bet is Los Blancos to get the job done with a win and not too many goals. Real & Under 3.5 goals would have come off in the first leg and can deliver again in the return.

Real have won nine and drawn the other of their last 10 home Champions League ties, and six of those wins featured three goals or less. Included among that sequence is a 2-0 win over Leipzig in last season's group stage.

The bet is a nice price because Leipzig's games tend to be full of goals. Their six group-stage fixtures produced 23 goals, their Bundesliga matches average 3.5 goals and they warmed up for the trip to Spain with a 4-1 win at Bochum.

They played well in the first game, matching Real shot for shot, but Benjamin Sesko had one of those nights, blowing six of the 14 Leipzig chances which came his way.

He'll get far fewer sights on goal at the Bernabeu, where La Liga's leaders are pretty much invincible having not lost in front of their own supporters since last April.

Their most recent home match produced a 1-0 win over Sevilla and they drew 2-2 in Valencia on Saturday night when Jude Bellingham, who missed the first game with an ankle problem, looked sharp as a tack on his return.

There is plenty of attacking power in the Leipzig ranks and they will take risks but this looks like a tie that Madrid can control to ease their way through to the last eight.

Both teams to receive 2+ cards @ 1/1

The first leg at the Red Bull Arena was an entertaining affair and also full of needle, understandable given the magnitude of the moment.

Bosnian referee Irfan Peljto took charge, controlled it well and still issued five yellow cards, three for Leipzig, two for Real Madrid.

With the stakes higher in the second leg expect even more tension and even more opportunities for cards, this time to be shown by Italian ref Davide Massa.

Massa heads for Madrid straight from a Serie B dust-up between Cremonese and Palermo in which he showed the hosts a red and a yellow and the visitors three yellows.

And hearteningly, for anyone following our advice of betting two or more cards shown to both teams at evens, the previous Champions League tie Massa took charge of was between PSV and Sevilla in November when he produced two reds and three yellows.

Domestically, neither of these clubs are noted bad boys, though, both take the pitch fresh from a weekend of frayed tempers. Leipzig's 4-1 win at Bochum featured six cards including a red while Real's 2-2 draw at Valencia ended with an almighty affray involving Bellingham, who was red carded.

On a night of much tension it would be no surprise to see Massa having a central part.

Toni Kroos Over 0.5 Shots on Target @ 5/4

Toni Kroos managed one shot on target in the first leg in Leipzig and is worth backing at odds-against to repeat the feat in the Bernabeu.

Kroos' role in the Real Madrid midfield is more defensively minded as the years have rolled on but he will still get forward and has a great shot on him.

The German maestro averages 1.3 shots per game this season and is quite capable of working Peter Gulacsi in the visitors' goal at least once.

Real Madrid v RB Leipzig odds

Real Madrid - 4/7
Draw -
7/2
RB Leipzig -
4/1

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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