Real Madrid v Atalanta: Prediction, Tips and Odds

The first piece of European silverware of the 2024/25 season will be handed out on Wednesday night as Real Madrid and Atalanta meet in the UEFA Super Cup in Warsaw.

Real are there as UEFA Champions League winners following their 2-0 victory over Borussia Dortmund at Wembley in June.

Atalanta have made it into their first UEFA Super Cup courtesy of their 3-0 win over Bayer Leverkusen in the Europa League final.

Real Madrid v Atalanta betting tips and predictions

Draw - 15/4

The winner of the UEFA Champions League has triumphed in 10  of the last 11 Super Cups, which on its own seems to hand Real a significant edge as they prepare to square up to Europa League winners Atalanta in Warsaw.

However, seven of the last nine UEFA Super Cups have ended in 90-minute draws, emphasising that while this is a prestigious trophy and well-rewarded financially, it is still pre-season.

Given that respective head coaches Carlo Ancelotti and Gian Piero Gasperini will be planning for the start of their domestic campaigns over the coming weeks, the value is probably not Real Madrid at 8/15, but it's hard to muster up much enthusiasm for the Italians. The draw at 15/4 is preferred.

Ancelotti has taken his entire squad to the Polish capital suggesting this is more of a training camp than an elite-level fixture and that he will give plenty of minutes to plenty of players.

All eyes will be on Mbappe who is likely to be involved but who probably won't get a long run having only joined in training for the first time on Monday.

The same applies to Jude Bellingham and a whole host of other players who had pretty much had the last few weeks off following international summers.

Clearly Ancelotti's squad is still packed with class as evidenced by the group, featuring the likes of Antonio Rudiger, Luka Modric, Vinicius Jr and Rodrygo, who beat Chelsea 2-1 last time out in Charlotte.

Real are five-time winners of the UEFA Super Cup, whereas Atalanta have never been involved in one, having just lifted their first European trophy.

To that end, this is a huge deal to La Dea and Gasperini is taking his strongest possible squad to Poland.

He is set to be without last term's joint top scorers, Teun Koopmeiners and Gianluca Scamacca, so new signing Mateo Retegui can expect to be involved.

Retegui's first taste of playing for Atalanta following his move from Genoa was the weekend 3-0 demolition at Bundesliga newcomers St Pauli, a shocker of a performance which they will want to forget about quickly.

Charles de Ketalaere Over 0.5 Shots on Target - 7/4

Belgian Charles de Ketalaere has completed a £20m move from AC Milan to Atalanta, having starred for La Dea while on loan last season.

He scored 14 goals last term, including two in the Europa League, which was his best scoring return since leaving Belgium.

The 23-year-old averaged 1.6 shots per game in Europe in 2023/24 and 1.3 shots per game in Serie A and was played in a No.10 role by Gasperini at St Pauli last time out, presumably with an eye on that being his role for the season.

Real, as we saw at Wembley against Dortmund, can cough up chances and Atalanta have always been an adventurous side with an attacking mindset, so De Ketalaere looks a big price at 7/4 to get at least one shot on target.

Under 9.5 Corners - 4/5

Take the 4/5 that there are under 9.5 corners because that's a common theme in Super Cup matches.

The last time Real were involved - their 2-0 win over Eintracht Frankfurt in 2022 - there were just four corners in total.

There were only eight last season in the match between Manchester City and Sevilla and seven in last week's friendly between Real and Chelsea.

There is a trophy on the line, but these are two groups of players still finding their way to full sharpness and this game is unlikely to produce end-to-end fireworks.

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Real Madrid v Atalanta odds

Real Madrid - 8/15
Draw - 15/4
Atalanta - 17/4

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.