Real Madrid v Arsenal: Prediction and Tips

Arsenal would seemingly have one foot in the semi-finals of the UEFA Champions League following their 3-0 success in the opening leg of their last eight tie at home, but Aaron Ashley believes you write Real Madrid off at your peril.

Real were made to look very ordinary on their trip to London, where two stunning Declan Rice free kicks and a composed Mikel Merino finish provided Arsenal supporters with a European night to remember.

However, only half the job is done and it is hard to see Los Blancos performing so badly again, especially at their beloved Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.

The Gunners are in the hot seat - they are 1/9 to qualify - but Carlo Ancellotti will believe that his array of attacking superstars can provide a response and make it a tense occasion for the Premier League visitors.

The Spanish giants are the most successful side in UEFA Champions League history, having won the title on 15 occasions, and there is always a chance while Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Jr and Jude Bellingham are on the field.

Contents

Real Madrid v Arsenal Prediction

Key Prediction Stats & Insights

Real Madrid v Arsenal Betting Tips

Real Madrid v Arsenal Head to Head

Supercomputer Prediction

Predicted Starting Line-ups

Real Madrid v Arsenal Prediction

Prediction	BetSie Supercomputer %	Odds	Odds (%)
Real Madrid to win	47.5%	7/10	58.8%
Real Madrid 3-1 Arsenal	N/A	11/1	8.3%

Key Prediction Stats & Insights

• Both teams have scored in Real Madrid's last 10 UEFA Champions League home matches

• Each of Arsenal's last seven UEFA Champions League fixtures have gone over 2.5 goals

• Real Madrid have lost only one of their last 19 UEFA Champions League games at home

Real Madrid v Arsenal Betting Tips

Tip	Current Odds
Real Madrid to win & both teams to score	2/1
Vinícius Junior anytime goalscorer	7/4
Jurrien Timber to be shown a card	3/1

Real Madrid to win & both teams to score - 2/1

Real Madrid were unable to match Arsenal's energy and intensity in the opening leg and were deservedly beaten.

However, it did take two wonderstrikes from Rice to provide the Gunners with a three-goal advantage and, while Arsenal did win the shots-on-target count 11-3, it is likely to be a very different scenario at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.

Real have no choice but to go on the front foot and the firepower they possess with Mbappe, Vinicius and Rodrgyo in front of Bellingham means that they have the ingredients to put up a bold fight in their comeback bid.

The Spanish side have won five of their six UEFA Champions League home games this season, having put five past Borussia Dortmund and Salzburg as well as netting three in victories over Manchester City and Stuttgart.

That offers some hope, but it is also hard to see them keeping Arsenal at bay given their obvious defensive flaws.

With Eder Militao, Dani Carvajal and Ferland Mendy missing through injury, Real have looked pretty easy to expose defensively and committing bodies forward will provide Arsenal with opportunities on the counter-attack.

Both teams have scored in Real Madrid's last 10 UEFA Champions League home games and they have kept only one clean sheet in their last 12 at home.

In their last two home games, Ancelotti's men have drawn 4-4 with Real Sociedad in the Copa Del Rey and 2-1 to Valencia in La Liga, highlighting those vulnerabilities, and Arsenal could grab what might be a decisive goal.

Vinicius Junior anytime goalscorer - 7/4

Mbappe will likely grab most of the pre-match headlines, especially after his red card against Alaves on Sunday.

However, his Brazilian teammate Vinicius has seven goals in 11 UEFA Champions League appearances this season and is a player who tends to deliver on the biggest of stages.

Giving too much focus to Mbappe could be dangerous and provide Vinicius, who has 19 goals and 14 assists in 44 matches for Real this season, with the freedom to exploit.

Jurrien Timber to be shown a card - 3/1

Arsenal are likely to spend a lot of time out of possession and defending in this second leg, enhancing the chances of Jurrien Timber picking up a card.

The right-back will have a tough time up against the pace and guile of Mbappe and Vinicius and bookings are a common occurrence for the Dutch 23-year-old.

Timber has been carded seven times in 29 Premier League appearances and may need to take more evasive action in Madrid.

Real Madrid v Arsenal Head to Head

Previous Meetings	4
Real Madrid Wins	0
Arsenal Wins	2
Draws	2
First Game	Real Madrid 0-1 Arsenal (February, 2006)
Last Game	Arsenal 3-0 Real Madrid (April, 2025)

This is the first time that Real Madrid and Arsenal have met in a UEFA Champions League campaign since 2006, when the Gunners came through their last-16 tie 1-0 on aggregate.

Arsenal ended up finishing as runners-up to Barcelona and will be dreaming of another run to the latter stages following last Tuesday's 3-0 first-leg success.

These two teams also met in the International Champions Cup, a pre-season tournament in the United States, in 2019 and after a 2-2 draw, Real Madrid went on to win on penalties.

Supercomputer Prediction

Real Madrid	47.5%
Draw	25.3%
Arsenal	27.2%

The odds suggest Real Madrid are favourites to beat Arsenal in this UEFA Champions League quarter-final second leg and have a 58.8% chance of winning in 90 minutes, while the BetSie Supercomputer gives the away side a 47.5% chance of winning the match.

The BetSie Supercomputer believes the Gunners have a 27.2% chance of winning Wednesday's clash.

According to the betting odds, a 3-1 Real Madrid victory has an 8.3% chance of happening.

Predicted Starting Line-ups

Real Madrid

Formation: 4-2-3-1
Team: Courtois; Valverde, Asencio, Rudiger, Alaba; Tchouameni, Modric; Rodrygo, Bellingham, Vinicius Jr; Mbappe.

Arsenal

Formation: 4-3-3
Team: Raya; Timber, Saliba, Kiwior, Lewis-Skelly; Odegaard, Partey, Rice; Saka, Merino, Martinelli.

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