Poland v Netherlands Prediction, Tips and Odds: Lewandowski blow gives Dutch a lift

Poland and Netherlands raise the curtain in Group D as they prepare to meet at the Volksparkstadion in Hamburg on Sunday.

The Dutch would have been solid favourites anyway against a country ranked 21 places below them in Fifa's list. But with Poland captain, talisman and record scorer Robert Lewandowski missing out through injury, Netherlands are into 11/20 with Michal Probierz's underdogs a 5/1 shot.

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Poland v Netherlands betting tips and predictions

Netherlands & Over 2.5 goals @ 6/4

Netherlands arrived in Germany flying somewhat under the radar, but they can deliver an early statement of intent by seeing off Poland in Hamburg.

Ronald Koeman's Dutch, second behind France in qualifying, should certainly fancy their chances against a Polish side who finished a remote third behind Albania and Czech Republic in their group in which they pipped Moldova by just a solitary point.

They won just three of their eight group-stage qualifying games - only Georgia of the final 24 won fewer matches during that stage.

Poland don't inspire much confidence and they are going to be even less attractive minus Lewandowski.

The 35-year-old Barcelona striker, a voracious goalscorer at whatever level, misses out because of a muscle problem that he hopes will have gone by the time they take on Austria in Berlin next week.

Lewandowski has carried this team for a decade but now they need a new hero with Lens frontman, the giant Adam Buksa, earmarked to lead the line at the end of a season in which he bagged 16 goals on loan at Antalyaspor in Turkey's Super Lig.

Buksa may have height on his side but Virgil van Dijk won't mind an aerial duel and that's just one of several areas across the pitch where the Oranje look to have Poland's measure.

Frenkie de Jong will be sorely missed in the Netherlands midfield but there is so much pace and quality up front in the likes of Cody Gakpo, Memphis Depay, Steven Bergwijn and Donyell Malan with the option of going to the big man, Wout Weghorst, if required. And Weghorst towers over Buksa.

The Dutch are in solid enough form, winning all of their qualifiers apart from the two games against France in which they were very much second best.

But Poland aren't France or anywhere near it. The Dutch have enough star quality to run rings around Jan Bednarek and co and win this comfortably. Back them in a game featuring over 2.5 goals at 6/4.

Virgil van Dijk Over 0.5 Shots on Target - 2/1

There is abundant talent in the Dutch front-line but the goal threats come from all across the pitch, including defenders.

And few central defenders in world football are as good at getting their head on crosses as Virgil van Dijk, the rock at the heart of Liverpool's back line.

The giant Dutchman is the fourth highest scorer in Koeman's squad with nine goals, two of which have come this month in the 4-0 wins over Canada and Iceland.

He has also scored four goals for Liverpool this season, a campaign in which he averaged 1.3 shots per game.

Van Dijk will be Poland's man-to-watch every time the Dutch get a set-play and 2/1 he gets just one effort on target looks an attractive play.

Over 3.5 Cards - 4/5 

Poland averaged two yellow cards per game during qualifying, Netherlands 1.5. Neither side saw a red. They were both pretty well-behaved teams.

However, Finals football is a step up in intensity and, of course, the role of the officials will play a big part in how high the card count goes.

And in Portuguese referee Artur Soares Dias, this game has one of the more officious whistle-blowers.

In each of Dias' last nine competitive internationals he has produced at least four yellow cards culminating in the seven he showed in October's 1-1 draw between Poland and Moldova and the eight he flashed in Montenegro's 2-0 win over Lithuania a month later.

These teams may be good boys but if there's a flashpoint or two Dias will quickly reach for his pocket - and that makes the 4/5 over 3.5 cards look a sound play.

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Poland v Netherlands odds

Poland - 5/1
Draw - 31/10
Netherlands - 11/20

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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