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Poland v Estonia: Prediction, Tips and Odds

The back door route to Euro 2024 opens on Thursday when Poland and Estonia face off in a play-off semi-final in Warsaw.

Estonia are the lowest-ranked team in the play-offs and only received their invitation thanks to their superior record in the 2022 edition of UEFA's Nations League B.

The heavily-favoured Poles would be left kicking themselves if they failed to book their ticket to the finals next door in Germany this summer. 

Poland v Estonia

Poland vs Estonia: betting tips and predictions

Poland to win 2-0 - 4/1

Poland finished third in Group E behind Albania and Czech Republic because of their away results against the other contenders.

Michal Probierz's side were more dependable at home and should have too much quality for an Estonia team that were totally out of their depth in Group F.

Thomas Haberli's team finished with only one point and a -20 goal difference from a section that also contained Belgium, Austria, Sweden and Azerbaijan.

Only Gibraltar and Liechtenstein scored fewer goals than the Blueshirts in qualifying and only the aforementioned teams plus Cyprus and San Marino conceded more.

But Estonia can limit the damage in Warsaw by sitting deep in Haberli's preferred 5-3-2 formation. They will try to threaten occasionally on the counter attack, but the majority of their time will be spent chasing Polish players in their own half.  

They prevented Azerbaijan, Austria and Sweden from scoring more than two against them in qualifying and, while Poland have one of the world's best strikers in their ranks, Robert Lewandowski will be marked by two players all evening.

The Poles have not scored three goals in a game since a 4-1 win in Andorra two and a half years ago, so a 2-0 scoreline might be as good as it gets and that would certainly do the job for the Eagles.

Maksim Paskotsi to be booked - 4/1

This Polish team loves to attack down the left wing because Napoli schemer Piotr Zielinski drifts out to that flank and Przemyslaw Frankowski, one of their best crossers of the ball, operates on that side.

The onus will be on Estonia to stop their threat and the man expected to be tasked with interrupting the flow of Polish balls into the box is Paskotsi.

The 21-year-old Grasshoppers defender usually plays at centre-back, but looks likely to be shifted out into this key role to accommodate the return of 38-year-old Ragnar Klavan.

Poland will no doubt try to confuse Paskotsi by overloading the left wing and targeting the space over his shoulder, which could see him caught in positions where a foul is his last resort.

He does not have a particularly bad disciplinary record, but his change of position for a match of this magnitude suggests there will be value in backing him to receive a card in Warsaw.

Over 6.5 Poland corners - 1/1

Estonia are a big team and that has dissuaded opponents from targeting them in the air with a bombardment of crosses and corners in the past.

But Poland may try it anyway as very few teams were more frequent crossers of the ball than the Eagles in qualifying.

Probierz is unlikely to see any reason to change the way they operate when his side is faced with a clogged-up midfield in Warsaw. 

The Blueshirts conceded 38 corners in their last six qualifying matches, a sequence which includes both of their games against Sweden and Belgium.

And, while Poland only averaged around five corners per game in qualifying, it would not take much for them to increase that rate to more than six in this game where they are likely to have a lot more possession than usual.

Read more football betting tips and predictions on site.

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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