Paraguay v Argentina: Prediction, Tips and Odds

Argentina are sitting pretty at the top of the South American section of 2026 World Cup qualifying, three points clear of second-placed Colombia, and confidence couldn’t be higher within the camp.

La Albiceleste retained their Copa America crown in the summer, beating Colombia 1-0 in the final after extra-time, and they have made good inroads towards keeping hold of their world champions tag too. 

They are understandably favourites ahead of their trip to Paraguay, although the hosts may slightly fancy their chances of pulling off a shock having beaten Brazil in September.

Argentina will pose a different level of challenge, though, and an intriguing clash could play out in Asuncion. 

Paraguay v Argentina betting tips and predictions

Argentina to win - 7/10

Paraguay have put together an impressive run since their group-stage exit at the 2024 Copa America, drawing with Marcelo Bielsa’s Uruguay and a solid Ecuador on their travels, while beating Brazil and Venezuela at home. 

However, while their four-game unbeaten run has included some great results, the bottom line is Argentina are by far and away the best side in South America and the test they will provide will be much sterner than anything Thursday’s hosts have faced of late. 

Lionel Scaloni’s men landed a second consecutive Copa America title in the summer, triumphs which sandwiched their ultimate success at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.

Including penalty-shootout victories, La Albiceleste have won 13 of their last 15 matches and with such a talented squad, there is just enough juice in their price to warrant backing them in Asuncion. 

Brazil’s attackers were out of form when Paraguay beat them 1-0 in September, but the same cannot be said of Argentina’s, highlighting how they should fare better against Gustavo Alfaro’s stubborn side than their bitter rivals. 

Lionel Messi has shown no signs of slowing down, scoring 21 goals and providing 11 assists in 22 MLS games this term, and the visitors’ star man netted a hat-trick in a 6-0 rout of Bolivia in Argentina’s last outing. 

Lautaro Martinez, Julian Alvarez and Alejandro Garnacho also provide a threat in the final third and it is difficult to see Paraguay keeping the Argentines at bay for very long. 

La Albirroja only lost 1-0 when the pair met in Buenos Aires last October, but they had just 25 percent of the possession and mustered up only four shots to Argentina’s 16 that day, suggesting they rode their luck in that clash. 

Back Argentina to extend their lead atop the CONMEBOL standings with a win in Asuncion. 

Lautaro Martinez anytime goalscorer - 15/8

After an excellent campaign last year, helping Inter Milan to the Serie A title and then bagging the winner in the Copa America final, Martinez started this season fairly slowly. 

The Inter forward failed to score a single goal in his opening seven games for club and country but he has since woken up, netting seven times in his last 12 appearances and he is resembling something close to his brilliant best again. 

Martinez’s five strikes over the summer earned him the Golden Boot at the Copa America and he is a dangerous force for his national side, boasting an excellent record of 30 goals in 68 caps for La Albiceleste. 

He was on target in Argentina’s 6-0 thrashing of Bolivia last month and could finally net a first goal against Paraguay, something which has been coming for a while. 

La Albirroja have always struggled to keep tabs on Martinez, with the Inter forward taking a combined eight shots in his three appearances against Thursday’s hosts, and a long overdue goal against Paraguay may finally arrive this time around. 

Omar Alderete to be booked - 15/8

With Martinez likely to provide a constant threat, Atletico Madrid’s Alvarez a similarly tricky customer and Messi still capable of giving defenders nightmares, Paraguay’s centre-backs appeal in the cards market. 

Gustavo Gomez and Omar Alderete are likely to be the hosts’ defensive pairing in Asuncion and it is the latter who catches the eye for a booking bet. 

Alderete’s club side, Getafe, are managed by Jose Bordalas, a coach known for employing a physical style of play, meaning the centre-back may take an industrious approach to stopping Argentina’s tricky attackers. 

The Paraguayan has been booked three times in 12 La Liga matches this term and, having been carded on his last national team appearance, is the standout pick to find his name in the referee’s book on Tuesday.

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Paraguay v Argentina odds

Paraguay - 17/4
Draw - 13/5
Argentina - 7/10

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.