Napoli v Lazio: Prediction, Tips and Odds

Lazio dumped Antonio Conte’s Napoli out of the Coppa Italia in midweek, adding to the former Chelsea manager’s struggles in knockout competitions.

However, Conte’s side are flying in the league and they’re out to build on a brilliant start in Serie A in this quick rematch with Biancocelesti.

While home form inspired Marco Baroni’s side in midweek, their patchy away record puts them at a disadvantage in Naples. Can the Partenopei avenge their cup defeat and return to the top of the Serie A standings? 

Napoli v Lazio betting tips and predictions

Napoli to win - 17/20

Napoli’s Coppa Italia loss wasn’t a huge surprise, as Conte has failed to win the competition as a manager despite his four Serie A titles. He’s in contention for a fifth title in Italy, as Napoli will move back on top of the table with a victory on Sunday.

The Partenopei have been fantastic through their first 14 matches, picking up 10 victories so far. They have also won six of their seven matches in Naples, conceding just 0.71 goals per game at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.

Fifth-placed Lazio are four points shy of Napoli going into this clash, as things are tightly packed at the top of Serie A. However, their home record has helped them to the bulk of their points, while Thursday’s 3-1 win over a rotated Napoli side also came in Rome. 

In Serie A, Lazio have lost four of their first seven away days this season. Two of their away wins have come at sides in the bottom three, while they have been beaten at Fiorentina, Juventus, Udinese and Parma already.

With Napoli winning seven of their eight home games in all competitions this term, back them to gain revenge for Thursday’s loss. 

Napoli to win 1-0 - 11/2

Napoli’s last title win came with some swashbuckling football under Luciano Spalletti, but this term they have been a bit more limited. Their return of 21 goals in 14 games is solid, but it leaves them behind six Serie A sides. 

Napoli have conceded just nine times so far this season, the second-best record behind Juventus. Their underlying numbers back that up too, as they have recorded the second-lowest Expected Goals Against, also behind Juve.

Conte’s side have won 1-0 in four of their 10 league victories this term, while opponents Lazio have suffered three away defeats by a single goal. This should be a cagey affair given how tight things are at the top of Serie A, so back Conte’s side to grind out another 1-0 win at 11/2. 

Valentin Castellanos to have 1+ shot on target and be carded - 5/1

Lazio’s Valentin Castellanos has been fantastic this season, scoring eight times across all competitions. He’s had 60 shots for the Biancocelesti so far, with a third of those working the goalkeeper.

Castellanos has had a shot on target in 12 of his 13 Serie A games this season, so he’s worth backing to trouble Napoli goalkeeper Alex Meret. However, Castellanos does have an issue with discipline, and has been in trouble frequently this season.

The forward leads Lazio in terms of fouls made, with 20 across his 13 league appearances. He’s also been booked on four occasions, including in Lazio’s 3-1 loss at Parma in their last away trip.

He’ll be matched up with Italian defender Alessandro Buongiorno, who has drawn a foul per game from opponents this season. With Castellanos set for a frustrating evening against a Napoli side who don’t concede a lot of goals, he’s also a good candidate for a caution.

Pairing Castellanos to be carded and have a shot on target this weekend holds plenty of appeal as a 5/1 double. 

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Napoli v Lazio odds

Napoli - 17/20
Draw - 12/5
Lazio - 7/2

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.