Luton Town v Derby County: Prediction, Tips and Odds

Luton Town and Derby County will both be seeking some festive cheer when they kick off the final round of Championship fixtures before Christmas at Kenilworth Road on Friday.

It has been an underwhelming first half of the season for Town, who were tipped by many to challenge for an immediate return to the Premier League, as they currently sit 19th, a full 12 points adrift of the play-off places.

Derby's expectations were much lower following last season's promotion from League One, but Paul Warne's team head to Bedfordshire two points and five places better off than their hosts and buoyed by last week's 4-0 thrashing of Portsmouth.

Luton Town v Derby County betting tips and predictions

Luton to win - 6/5

After securing Premier League promotion in 2023 and then making a good fist of staying in the top-flight last season, few would have envisaged Luton languishing in the lower reaches of the Championship heading into the festive period.

However, that is the plight currently facing the Hatters and the pressure remains on manager Rob Edwards to turn their fortunes around.

There have been recent signs of improvement, at least on home turf, as they are unbeaten in five at Kenilworth Road, winning three of those games, while high-flying Sunderland are the only team to have beaten the Hatters in Bedfordshire since the end of August.

Cardiff City, Hull City and Stoke City have all been swatted aside by Luton over recent weeks and now another bottom-half team, Derby, could suffer a similar fate.

The Rams did produce their best performance of the season when firing four unanswered goals past Portsmouth at Pride Park last Friday night, but that was only their second win in 12 matches and their away form makes for grim reading.

County have won only one of their 11 away matches since returning to the Championship, losing seven of those, while they also do not have recent fond memories of visiting Kenilworth Road, as they have lost on their last three trips to the venue.

All that suggests that it could be Luton's supporters that are enjoying some festive cheer on Friday, with the Hatters fancied to edge to another home success.

Elijah Adebayo over 2.5 shots - 11/10

Luton forward Elijah Adebayo's season has followed a similar pattern to that of his club's as, after a difficult start, he may now be starting to turn a corner after scoring three goals in his last four games.

That has taken the 26-year-old's tally for the season to five, but the statistics suggest that is still well below where he should be, as he has an expected goals (xG) score of 9.5, the highest of any player in the division.

Adebayo has also had 47 shots this season, the most of any player that will take to the field on Friday, while 22 of those efforts have been on target - only the Championship's leading scorer, Borja Sainz of Norwich City, has had more with 31.

He is a player that will never shirk responsibility in front of goal and with his form improving, expect Adebayo to unleash several shots against Derby.

Jordan Clark to be booked - 9/2

Luton are a side who like to adopt a physical approach, as they sit third in the Championship when it comes to most fouls conceded and joint fourth for most yellow cards.

They are first when it comes to red cards, as they have received four of those across the season, most recently when Liam Walsh was dismissed against Blackburn Rovers last weekend.

Walsh's fellow midfielder Jordan Clark has also been no stranger to referees, as he has picked up a team-high seven yellow cards this season, including against Blackburn when he was cautioned after just three minutes.

Only Adebayo has given away more fouls in a Luton shirt than Clark's tally of 25 this season and the 31-year-old could find his way into the referee's notebook once again in what could be a fiery festive clash with Derby.

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Luton Town v Derby County odds

Luton Town - 6/5
Draw - 11/5
Derby County - 13/5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.