Lille v Borussia Dortmund: Free Prediction and Tips

The UEFA Champions League round of 16 clash between Lille and Borussia Dortmund remains finely balanced as the teams head into the second leg in northern France tied at 1-1.

Last week’s first leg saw Dortmund, the defeated finalists at Wembley last year, take the lead at home through Karim Adeyemi's fifth goal of the campaign.

However, Lille, still seeking their first-ever knockout stage victory, levelled in the second half when Hakon Arnar Haraldsson punched on Jonathan David’s defence-splitting pass.

To advance to the quarter-finals, Lille will need to replicate their strong home performances from the group stage, where they defeated Real Madrid and scored six against Feyenoord. 

Meanwhile, Dortmund can draw inspiration from their past successes in France, including a crucial 1-0 win over Paris Saint-Germain last season that helped them reach the final.

Contents

Lille v Borussia Dortmund Prediction

Key Prediction Stats & Insights

Lille v Borussia Dortmund Free Betting Tips

Lille v Borussia Dortmund Head to Head

Supercomputer Prediction

Predicted Starting Line-ups

Lille v Borussia Dortmund Prediction

Prediction	BetSie Supercomputer %	Odds	Odds (%)
Draw	25%	12/5	29.4%
Lille 1-1 Borussia Dortmund	N/A	11/2	15.4%

Key Prediction Stats & Insights

• Both teams have scored in 11 of Lille’s last 13 matches in all competitions

• Dortmund have scored the first goal in all five of their UEFA Champions League away games this season

• Dortmund have lost seven of the eight European ties in which they drew at home in the first leg

Lille v Borussia Dortmund Free Betting Tips

Tip	Current Odds
Draw (90 mins)	5/2
Both teams to score in 1st Half	7/2
Serhou Guirassy to score anytime (90 mins)	13/8

Draw (90 mins) - 5/2

So, for the third time in three meetings of these clubs, the match finished all square in Dortmund last week.

Lille can feel a little aggrieved by the result because they created better openings, but Bruno Genesio’s side would probably have settled for a draw beforehand.

However, the Ligue 1 club cannot go into Wednesday’s home second leg thinking that they are in the driving seat.

Dortmund are arguably more dangerous away from home because of their ability to turn quick transitions into goalscoring chances for deadly marksman Serhou Guirassy.

And, as we know from last season, the Bundesliga outfit know how to plot their way through the knockout rounds of this competition.

Les Dogues’ home record in the League phase was impressive as they beat Real Madrid, Sturm Graz and Feyenoord while drawing the other clash at Stade Pierre-Mauroy 1-1 with Juventus.

But the psychology of league play and knockout contests is very different and Lille have still yet to go beyond the UEFA Champions League’s round of 16 stage.

They scored 17 goals and conceded only 10 in eight League stage matches to finish seventh. Although they defended well in general, they looked vulnerable to counterattacks.

That is one area where Dortmund, who were told a few home truths by coach Nico Kovac in the wake of their 1-0 home defeat to Augsburg last weekend, excel.

Die Schwarzgelben demonstrated that when beating Sporting CP 3-0 in Lisbon during their knockout-round play-off tie.

Lille lost 2-0 to the Portuguese side when they travelled to Estadio Jose Alvalade earlier in the season, so they know how good a result that was.

The odds for this return game suggest there is nothing between the two teams and therefore it seems wise to side with the draw in 90 minutes. 

Both teams to score in the first half - 7/2

Lille have scored the opening goal in all five of their home UEFA Champions League games this season and led at the break in all four League phase games at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.

That tendency to make early gains should be weighed against Dortmund’s equally impressive record for fast starts on the road.

The Bundesliga club have got the first goal in all five of their away league phase fixtures and went 2-0 up at Estadio Bernabeu before being overwhelmed by a superb Real Madrid fightback.

Backing both teams to hit the back of the net, which has happened in Lille’s last two UEFA Champions League home games, looks the way to go.

Serhou Guirassy to score anytime (90 mins) - 13/8

Serhou Guirassy appears to be the biggest threat to Lille’s progression as the ex-Stuttgart striker has maintained his superb goalscoring form throughout a difficult campaign for his team.

The Guinea international has hit 30 goals in 38 games for club and country this season, scoring 11 times in his last 12 games for BVB.

The 28-year-old, who is the UEFA Champions League’s top scorer with 10 goals, will be keen to impress on this return to the country of his birth.

Lille v Borussia Dortmund Head to Head

Previous Meetings	3
Lille Wins	0
Borussia Dortmund Wins	0
Draws	3
First Game	Lille 1-1 Borussia Dortmund (February 2002)
Last Game	Borussia Dortmund 1-1 Lille (March 2025)

Apart from last week’s first leg, the only previous time these two sides faced each other was in the fourth round of the 2002 UEFA Cup.

Dortmund won that tie on away goals and progressed all the way to the final, where they lost 3-2 to Feyenoord.

Supercomputer Prediction

Lille	36.9%
Draw	25.0%
Borussia Dortmund	38.1%

The odds suggest Lille have an 38.1% chance of beating Borussia Dortmund on Wednesday night, while the BetSie Supercomputer believes there is a slightly lower chance of this outcome, predicting a 36.9% chance of the home side winning the tie.

The BetSie Supercomputer agrees with the odds and predicts the visitors have a 38.1% chance of leaving France with a victory in 90 minutes.

Predicted Starting Line-ups

Lille

Formation: 4-3-3
Team: Chevalier; Ismaily, Alexsandro, Diakite, Meunier; Mukau, Andre, Bouaddi; Mbappe, Haraldsson, David.

Borussia Dortmund

Formation: 4-2-3-1
Team: Kobel; Bensebaini, Schlotterbeck, Can, Ryerson; Gross, Sabitzer; Duranville, Beier, Adeyemi; Guirassy.

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