Leeds United v Derby County: Prediction, Tips and Odds

Inconsistent away performances have been an issue for Leeds United, who were nudged out of the top two by last weekend’s results.

But they have taken 22 points from nine home fixtures and will only have eyes for victory against Derby, who are battling to consolidate in their first second tier season since the 2021-2022 campaign.

The Rams lost 2-1 at home to Sheffield Wednesday last Sunday and sit five points outside of the relegation zone.

Leeds United v Derby County betting tips and predictions

Leeds win to nil - Evs

Elland Road is one the toughest venues for visiting teams across the EFL and its reputation as a fortress could be enhanced by a comfortable Leeds victory over Derby this weekend.

Leeds had the Championship’s second best home record last season with 53 points accrued from 23 games and they continue to deliver in the vast majority of home games.

Farke’s promotion-chasing side have reeled off six successive Elland Road victories, conceding only one goal in the process.

Visiting teams often arrive with a low block and an intention to stay in the game for as long as possible.

But this cautious approach has contributed to some really one sided affairs.

Leeds have kept six home clean sheets and their wins over Sheffield United (2-0), Plymouth (3-0) and QPR (2-0) were achieved without the opposition registering any shots on target.

Derby’s challenge is to try to offer more of a threat but they approach the game short of confidence after successive 2-1 losses at home to Swansea and Sheffield Wednesday.

Paul Warne’s Rams were 2-1 victors at Coventry last month, but they have lost five of their eight away games and are likely to be brushed aside in Yorkshire.

Brenden Aaronson to score or assist - 11/10

Leeds carry a lot of attacking threats without relying too much on any individual.

Farke regularly rotates his forward players but he will be reluctant to leave out American international Brenden Aaronson, who has caught the eye with a string of lively performances.

Aaronson has contributed just one assist but his key pass tally (26) is the 15th highest in the division.

In terms of scoring goals the numbers are also impressive with four netted from an xG of 4.58.

The 24-year-old has notched in two of his last four home games and looks a solid 11/10 shot to make a goal contribution (score or assist) against Derby.

Marcus Harness to be carded - 3/1

Derby will do their utmost to stem the flow of Leeds attacks but their task is made more difficult by suspensions for midfielder Ebou Adams and left back Callum Elder, who are two of their most combative players.

Others will have to take on greater responsibility and one man sure to be in the thick of the physical exchanges is Marcus Harness, who is a busy player either in or out of possession.

Harness has been carded four times this season despite featuring in only 13 league games.

The 28-year-old has received cautions in three of his last five appearances and looks an overpriced 3/1 shot to enter the book this weekend.

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Leeds United v Derby County odds

Leeds United - 4/11
Draw - 15/4
Derby County - 7/1

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.