Leeds v Southampton: Prediction, Tips and Odds

An immediate return to the Premier League was the pre-season expectation for both Leeds and Southampton but neither were consistent enough to nail down a top-two finish and one will miss out altogether in the Championship play-off final.

Leeds racked up a creditable 90 points, but they wobbled in the run-in, taking just four points from the final six games.

Saints went 22 games unbeaten in the middle of the campaign, but they started and finished slowly and have just one more chance to restore their top-flight status.

Both teams are under huge pressure to win at the weekend and a close contest is anticipated by Dan Childs, who has picked out his three best bets for the Wembley encounter.

Leeds are 5/4 to triumph without the need for extra-time and are 4/6 to go up, while Southampton are 9/4 to win in normal time and 6/5 to succeed on the day.

Dan Childs' Leeds v Southampton tips and predictions

Southampton to be promoted - 6/5

Southampton were a top-flight team for 11 successive seasons before last year’s surprise relegation and they can return to the promised land by defeating Leeds at Wembley.

Leeds are widely regarded as one of the heavyweight teams in English football, but they have been a Premier League club for just three of their last 20 campaigns.

There is a huge expectancy among the Whites supporters, who played their part in the 4-0 play-off semi-final success at home to Norwich by creating a fantastic atmosphere.

Leeds have generally responded to the vocal backing they receive at Elland Road, but they have been far less convincing on their travels and were beaten 4-0 by QPR on their last trip to the capital.

Daniel Farke’s side have also lost each of their league matches against Southampton - going down 3-1 on the South Coast and 2-1 in West Yorkshire - and they need to come up with a better performance or risk the end of their promotion dream.

Saints boss Russell Martin has insisted that those head-to-head results will count for nothing, but he is also confident of steering his team to play-off final success.

Martin’s almost obsessive belief in a possession-based style of football can get his team into trouble when opponents press at the right moments and steal the ball high up.

But a short passing approach should be easier to carry off at Wembley where the impressive playing surface is of above average size.

Saints are at their best when they play with energy.

Their intensity levels dropped on occasions during the run-in, but there were more positive signs in their impressive 3-1 playoff semi-final, second leg success over West Brom.

Martin’s side ran the Baggies ragged and should have won by more goals.

They face a sterner challenge against Leeds, but they look the likelier winners and are worth backing at 6/5 to reclaim a Premier League place.

David Brooks to assist a goal - 7/2

Wales international David Brooks has won over the Southampton fans with some excellent performances since his January loan switch from Bournemouth and he can have a major impact in the play-off final.

Brooks was on the fringes of the Cherries squad in the opening half of this season, but he has been much more influential in Saints colours.

The 26-year-old has popped up with six assists, including the set-up for Will Smallbone’s crucial 49th minute deadlock breaker in the play-off semi-final, second leg at home to West Brom.

He had an outstanding game against the Baggies and will be one of the main danger men for Leeds on Sunday.

Brooks is 4/1 to score a goal, but another assist seems more likely and it can be backed at tempting odds of 7/2.

Junior Firpo to be carded - 7/4

Southampton are especially strong down the right flank with Brooks in such good form and Kyle Walker-Peters offering plenty of ambitious raids from his wing-back position.

It will be tough to contain the pair and part of the responsibility will fall onto the shoulders of Leeds left back Junior Firpo, who is generally better in attack than in defence.

Firpo has been carded 22 times in 71 league appearances for the Yorkshire side and he looks a solid 7/4 bet for a caution at Wembley.

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Leeds v Southampton odds

Leeds - 5/4
Draw - 11/5
Southampton - 9/4

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdraw or change at any time.