The final round of Copa Libertadores group-stage contests delivers a crucial tie in section G as Lanus face Mirassol.
Lanus can’t qualify for the knockout rounds of the competition, but the Argentinian side needs a positive result to secure a place in the Copa Sudamericana knockout round play-offs.
Mirassol are sure of progress to the next round of the competition, but a result at Estadio Lanus would secure top spot in the section.
Lanus v Mirassol Tips Summary
Best Bet - Mirassol or draw double chance @ 10/11
Alternative Bet - Under 1.5 goals @ 6/4
Bet Builder - Ramiro Carrera to bet booked, under 2.5 goals, Mirassol or draw double chance @ 10/3
Lanus v Mirassol Prediction
Best Bet: Mirassol or draw double chance @ 10/11
Lanus will have home advantage when Mirassol come to Buenos Aires in their final group-stage contest of the Copa Libertadores, but Garnet doesn’t appear to be playing well enough to take advantage.
Mauricio Pellegrino needs at least a point to be sure of a place in the Copa Sudamericana knockout round play-offs and the security of a draw also makes the Argentinian side look a little short in this spot.
Lanus are unbeaten in their last five home games, but they have all of their last three games, which have all come on the road.
Of course, Garnet return to Estadio Lanus against Mirassol, but their recent performances have been alarming.
Lanus were beaten 2-0 at LDU Quito in their most recent Copa Libertadores contest and the Argentinian side failed to hit a single shot on target in a shutout defeat.
Prior to the loss in Ecuador, Pellegrino’s men carried next to no attacking threat in a 2-0 defeat at Argentinos Juniors and that followed a crushing 4-0 defeat at Always Ready.
Mirassol have beaten Always Ready home and away in the Copa Libertadores this season, and that’s a good indicator of Sao Paulo’s superiority.
The Brazilians have dominated their Copa Libertadores section this term, taking 12 points from five group-stage games and only one defeat in their last eight all-completion matches.
Rafael Guanaes’ men are good enough to take at least a point at Estadio Lanus.
Alternative Bet: Under 1.5 goals @ 6/4
The set-up of this final Copa Libertadores Group G contest means a draw is a good result for both sides and a low-scoring contest is on the cards. Either way, Lanus are not a side which carry much firepower.
Garnet have seen ten of their last 11 games go under 2.5 goals, Pellegrino’s men have failed to score a single goal in any of their last four matches and it’s only five strikes in their last 13 games.
The Buenos Aires men have put up expected goals figures of only 0.21, 0.45 and 0.49 in their last three matches and they are likely to struggle to break Mirassol down.
The Lions have conceded only three goals in their five Copa Libertadores matches this season and the reverse fixture in Sao Paulo finished in a 1-0 home win.
The two sides put up expected goals figures of just 0.43 and 0.33 in that contest last month and under 1.5 goals looks a good option here.
Lanus v Mirassol Bet Builder Tip
Ramiro Carrera to bet booked
Under 2.5 goals,
Mirassol or draw double chance
Pays @ 10/3
Ramiro Carrera is averaging 0.6 cards per 90 minutes in the Liga Profesional Apertura this season and is committing 1.45 fouls.
The combative 32-year-old looks a bet to be booked against Mirassol.
Goals are unlikely to flow at Estadio Lanus and betting under 2.5 should have no issue landing.
A contest with such a low goal expectancy is not an attractive spot for odds-on shots and Mirassol look a bet to collect at least a point on their travels.
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Key Match Stats
Ten of Lanus last 11 games have gone under 2.5 goals
Lanus have failed to score in their last four games
Lanus have hit the net only five times in their last 11 games
On or both teams have failed to score in all of Lanus’ last 11 contests
Mirassol have lost only one of their last eight matches
Lanus have recorded expected goals numbers of only 0.21, 0.45 and 0.49 in their last three matches
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
