Barcelona made it a successful La Liga title defence last term and Racing Post tipster Jamie Griffith believes they are worthy favourites to repeat the trick in 2026/27.
Hansi Flick's side finished eight points clear of bitter rivals Real Madrid to seal the crown and Los Blancos have responded by splashing the cash to give returning manager Jose Mourinho as strong a squad as possible and mount a title charge.
Atletico Madrid, still led by legendary manager Diego Simeone, are the default third-favourites and may put together a challenge. However, Barca are a team on an upward trajectory and may prove tough to beat.
Contents Table
La Liga Tips and Predictions
Outright Prediction: Barcelona (4/5)
Alternative Tip: Osasuna to be relegated (5/1)
Dark Horse Tip: Alex Grimaldo most assists (33/1)
Opening Weekend Fixtures
Alaves vs Getafe (Saturday, 18:30)
Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano (Saturday, 20:30)
Racing Santander vs Villarreal (Sunday, 16:00)
Espanyol vs Levante (Sunday, 18:00)
Celta Vigo vs Osasuna (Sunday, 20:30)
Deportivo vs Elche (Monday, 20:00)
Atletico Madrid vs Malaga (Wednesday, 20:00)
Alaves and Getafe have the honour of battling it out in La Liga's curtain-raiser on Saturday.
Jose Bordalas' visitors were shock Conference League qualifiers last term and look good value to see off a side that looks set for another relegation battle.
Promoted Racing Santander are also expected to be on the receiving end of an unwelcome return from a strong Villarreal side on Sunday.
The same fate awaits Malaga at Atletico Madrid in the final game of the round three days later.
Barcelona and Real Madrid's opening matches have been pushed back a week due to the number of players involved in the World Cup semi-finals.
La Liga Favourites
Team | Odds |
Barcelona | |
Real Madrid | |
Atletico Madrid | |
Real Betis | |
Villarreal | |
Athletic Club |
Having won the last two titles, it is no surprise to see Barcelona are odds-on to prevail again.
Often a two-horse race, it is equally as unsurprising that Real Madrid come next in the betting.
Again, in a shock to nobody, Atletico Madrid, the only team other than the Clasico rivals to lift the trophy in the past 22 years, are the sole side shorter than 50/1.
Top Goalscorer Favourites
Player | Odds |
Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid) | |
Lamine Yamal (Barcelona) | |
Raphinha (Barcelona) | |
Mikel Oyarzabal (Real Sociedad) | |
Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid) | |
Ante Budimir (Osasuna) | |
Georges Mikautadze (Villarreal) | |
Julian Alvarez (Atletico Madrid) |
Surprises look hard to come by in Spain as Kylian Mbappe, the winner of the last two top-goalscorer awards, is odds-on to land another Pichichi Trophy.
He has scored 56 goals across the last two La Liga seasons and is hard to oppose, although Raphinha and Mikel Oyarzabal do make some appeal.
At a big price, Atletico's Alexander Sorloth could be worth supporting. His minutes should increase now that Antoine Griezmann has departed, and his 23 strikes saw him finish second for goals in the 2023/24 La Liga campaign.
Data-Led La Liga Predictions & Analytics
When diving deeper into potential outcomes, advanced metrics like xGF (expected goals for) and clean sheet percentage give a more predictive edge than headline form.
Here's what the data tells us about the leading contenders:
Real Madrid's Kylian Mbappe (0.2) and Vinicius Junior (1.0) ranked 344th and 336th of 344 La Liga players for defensive contributions per 90 minutes last term
Barcelona's return of 99.67 expected goals was at least 18.18 more than any other La Liga team last season
Despite surviving, Sevilla (37.88), Elche (41.67), Getafe (42.95) and Espanyol (44.13) all earned fewer expected points than relegated Girona's 45.11
Barcelona goalkeeper Joan Garcia saved 81.1 per cent of the shots he faced last season, at least 5.1 per cent more than any other player
La Liga Outright Prediction
The return of Mourinho to Madrid would have been a coup 10 years ago. Today it reeks of desperation, with his stock falling to a new low after trophyless spells with Fenerbahce and Benfica.
Real were a distant second-best to Barcelona last term and even their big spending is unlikely to see them close that gap, as the self-proclaimed 'Special One' is no longer the master tactician he once was.
Yan Diomande is an exciting buy but defensively questionable trio Ibrahima Konate, Denzel Dumfries and Marc Cucurella, and an ageing Bernardo Silva, do nothing to suggest they can stop a Barca side on an upward trajectory from making it three titles in as many years.
The fact Barcelona are this good already should have Real trembling and a dynasty could be on the cards. Lamine Yamal, Pau Cubarsi, Pedri and many more are still a way off their primes and should only get better after adding Anthony Gordon and Karim Adeyemi to the ranks.
Even with Mbappe, Real scored 18 fewer goals than their rivals last term. Flick's gung-ho style has already proved impossible to stop in Spain's top flight and if they land elite tempo-controller Rodri as expected, they could win the title by double-figure points.
Alternative Tip
At the other end, Osasuna look set for another tricky campaign. Only their superior head-to-head record over Mallorca kept them up last term and regression is likely following the loss of star man and chief creator Victor Munoz.
Manager Alessio Lisci has moved on but his replacement, Luis Miguel Ramis, is unlikely to bring improvement, having coached relatively unsuccessfully in the second tier for most of his career.
As of Monday, Osasuna have made just one signing, while their relegation rivals, including the promoted trio, have all done some solid business.
For a side that was so poor last season, standing still over the summer can only spell trouble, and problems are likely to unfold in Pamplona.
Dark Horses to Watch
With Barcelona expected to romp to the title, there is little value in the outright market when it comes to dark horses.
Atletico Madrid could mount a charge, but they are not even guaranteed to finish third, with Villarreal looking a decent bet in the without-Barcelona-and-Real-Madrid market after replacing manager Marcelino with Inigo Perez, who did brilliantly at Rayo Vallecano.
A smarter big-price play, however, comes in the most-assists market. Yamal is a strong favourite to top the playmaking charts for a third season running.
However, his minutes may be limited due to ongoing injury issues and he might have competition from one of Atleti's new signings, Alex Grimaldo.
The versatile Spaniard recorded assists tallies of 13, seven and seven in his last three Bundesliga seasons with Bayer Leverkusen and could thrive at either left-back or left-midfield in Simeone's 4-4-2 system.
With Julian Alvarez and Sorloth to aim for, Grimaldo's pinpoint crossing could come in very handy, and he is a huge price to top the assists charts.
Who Wins La Liga?
Real Madrid would love to steal the title back from their rivals but it is likely to be no way Jose for Mourinho and his team of superstars.
Barcelona are simply a better all-round team and the World Cup success Yamal, Cubarsi, Pedri and others enjoyed with Spain will only have helped a young squad grow in confidence.
Atletico, Villarreal and, possibly, Real Betis are likely to throw down the biggest challenge to the Clasico foes.
However, asking any of them to go toe-to-toe with two teams who were already dominant and have spent so much over the summer might be too big a request.
Read more football betting tips and predictions on site.
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
