LA Galaxy v New York Red Bulls: Prediction, Tips and Odds

Home advantage could play a crucial part in the MLS Cup final between LA Galaxy and New York Red Bulls on Saturday

The Galaxy, who finished second in the Western Conference, have been formidable at Dignity Health Sports Park this season, winning 16 of 20 matches and drawing the other four.

Greg Vanney's side have outscored opponents 56-27 on their home turf.

The Red Bulls will be looking to complete a fairytale journey to Carson that saw them become the first team since 1998 to win three consecutive road games in the post-season.

New York, who finished seventh in the Eastern Conference, are the lowest-seeded team in MLS history to reach the final and will be looking to claim their first overall title after nearly 30 years in the league.

LA Galaxy v New York Red Bulls betting tips and predictions

Draw @ 14/5

After securing a dramatic 1-0 victory over Seattle in the Western Conference Final, thanks to a late goal from Dejan Joveljic, the Galaxy may believe it is their destiny to go all the way this year.

They have home advantage in the MLS Cup Final and Vanney’s team, with the help of their vociferous fans, have turned Dignity Health Sports Park into a fortress this season.

The Galaxy have won 14 consecutive matches there as the home team, outscoring opponents 43-18 during that span.

However, the absence of playmaker Riqui Puig, who tore his ACL in the Western Conference Final, could be significant. 

The former Barcelona midfielder has been a key cog in the Galaxy machine, attempting more passes and taking more touches than anyone in the league this season.

Puig scored 13 goals and registered 15 assists during the season before stepping things up with four goals and three assists in the MLS Cup Playoffs prior to his unfortunate injury.

The Los Angeles outfit beat Seattle in that game despite having one of their lowest shares of possession (54%) since July and carving out very few goalscoring chances.

Vanney has no like-for-like replacement for Puig in his squad and looks set to deploy a midfield with more bite than guile.

Red Bulls, meanwhile, have proven capable of holding off supposedly stronger opponents in the rarefied atmosphere of the play-offs.

Sandro Schwarz’s side have played with poise and grit and they can potentially turn the tables on Los Angeles if they frustrate them for long enough for the crowd to become a non-factor.

Two of the last three MLS Cup Finals have been level after 90 and 120 minutes, so it would be no surprise if the Red Bulls took this game to extra-time.

Under 2.5 Goals @ 11/10

While the Galaxy boast a potent attack, having scored 16 goals in their four play-off matches so far, the Red Bulls have shown tremendous resolve defensively.

Goalkeeper Carlos Coronel has been outstanding, keeping clean sheets against Columbus Crew, New York City FC and Orlando City.

While the Red Bulls have conceded just two goals in post-season, the clinical nature of their forwards has perhaps masked a lack of creativity in the side.

Their expected goals (xG) has been 1.0 or fewer in three of those four post-season games and they edged past Orlando in the Eastern Conference Final by registering only one shot on target in the 90 minutes.

As the underdogs and visitors in the MLS Cup Final, the Red Bulls have no reason to change their approach and open the game up.

That could lead to a stale affair until the deadlock is broken, but if Metro were to snatch the opening goal, then Schwarz would only double down on the defensive focus. 

Time of First Card - Not before 25:00 @ 5/6

Guido Gonzalez Jr will be the man in the middle on Saturday and the official has not tended to reach for his cards in the early stages of games.

He issued exactly four cards in each of his last three MLS appointments, two of which were in the play-offs, and none of the cautions came before the 35th minute.

There will be some added spice on Saturday because of the magnitude of the game, but Gonzalez is an experienced official who knows how to manage the players without having to resort to his pocket.

In the MLS All-Star game he officiated earlier this season, Gonzalez only booked one player - Puig - in the 77th minute.

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LA Galaxy v New York Red Bulls odds

LA Galaxy - 17/20
Draw - 14/5
New York Red Bulls - 3/1

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.