Japan and Uruguay will have contrasting memories of this summer’s World Cup as they prepare to meet in an international friendly at Rifu’s Miyagi Stadium on Thursday.
Uruguay were 4-2 winners on their last trip to the Miyagi but that success came 13 years ago and their golden generation has since moved on, leaving them light ahead of a return visit.
Their loss of quality was on full show at the World Cup as they were held to draws by Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde before being beaten by Spain to seal a group-stage exit.
Given Japan’s impressive summer, Thursday’s friendly is unlikely to go the way of the South Americans.
Japan v Uruguay Tips Summary
Best Bet - Japan to win @ 4/5
Alternative Bet - Japan to win to nil @ 7/4
Bet Builder - Japan to win, Ayase Ueda anytime goalscorer, Under 4 goals @ 4/1
Japan v Uruguay Prediction
Best Bet: Japan to win @ 4/5
Excluding the three hosts, Japan were the first team to qualify for the 2026 World Cup and that strong campaign was followed by eye-catching friendly wins over Brazil and England.
They carried that momentum into the group stage of the World Cup, where they drew with the Netherlands and Sweden either side of a 4-0 thrashing of Tunisia.
The Samurai Blue were then a touch unlucky against Brazil in the Round of 32, conceding a 95th-minute hammer blow to lose 2-1, but they showed more than enough to suggest they will have the beating of Uruguay.
The two-time World Cup winners will be hoping national icon Diego Forlan can fare better than Marcelo Bielsa but this Uruguay squad is still lacking a top striker, while the withdrawal of their best player, Federico Valverde, means a positive result is likely to prove beyond them.
Alternative Bet: Japan to win to nil @ 7/4
Given their immense quality, a shade of odds-on seems a pretty generous price for Japan as it is. However, those seeking a bigger payout should consider backing Hajime Moriyasu’s hosts to win to nil.
The Samurai Blue have won six of their last nine games without conceding and that is a run which includes victories over England, Scotland, Tunisia and Ghana, most of whom have much better attacking options than Uruguay.
If anyone can get a tune out of a misfiring attack it is Forlan, but even he may struggle to make an instant impact with a group of forwards whose jewel in the crown is Darwin Nunez, a notoriously poor finisher.
Japan v Uruguay Bet Builder Tip
Japan to win
Ayase Ueda anytime goalscorer
Under 4 goals
Pays 4/1
The contrast between Bielsa, a well-known meticulous manager, and Forlan, a relative rookie, is likely to be stark, so it is hard to start the bet builder with anything other than a win for Japan, who are much more settled under Moriyasu.
There are a number of Samurai Blue attackers capable of hurting the visitors, but Ayase Ueda remains the biggest threat.
The Japan star scored twice at the World Cup after a return of 25 goals in 31 Eredivisie starts and he has carried that form into the new season, averaging a strike every 95 minutes when including his 2026/27 outings for both Feyenoord and new club Lille.
Ueda should help Japan get over the line but Uruguay will be keen to give a reaction after a poor World Cup so a low-scoring game is likely, especially with only two of the Samurai Blue’s last nine matches featuring more than three goals.
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Key Match Stats
Japan have won seven of their last 10 matches
Six of the Samurai Blue’s last seven wins have been accompanied by a clean sheet
Uruguay have won only one of their last 12 away matches
Under 3.5 goals has been a winning bet in 14 of La Celeste’s last 16 games
Japan have won 74 of their 108 matches under Hajime Moriyasu, losing only 18
Uruguay captain Jose Maria Gimenez could earn his 100th cap
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
