Arsenal have all but sealed their place in the top eight of the UEFA Champions League league phase which ought to make their trip to Spain to take on Girona a routine affair.
Girona's debut European campaign has turned into something of a nightmare with six losses in seven matches and they will be pleased to get back to domestic business.
Contents |
Prediction | BetSie Supercomputer % | Odds | Odds % |
Draw | 20% | 23.1% | |
Girona 1-1 Arsenal | N/A | 12.5% |
Girona have failed to score in five of seven UEFA Champions League ties
Arsenal are unbeaten in their last eight away matches
Girona have won just two of their last 11 matches in all competitions
Tip | Current Odds |
Draw | |
Card Handicap - Girona 0 | |
Girona Over 3.5 Corners |
Draw @ 10/3
It may be an action-packed night around Europe of high-stakes UEFA Champions League action, but expect a more low-key affair to unfold at the Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
Arsenal are in Catalonia to play Girona for the first time in their history, with the two teams in very different positions.
The Gunners, with 16 points to their name and qualified, can look forward (barring a miracle) to a top-eight finish and a couple of midweeks off until the Round of 16 in March.
Girona, in contrast, are stuck on three points, eliminated and free to focus on their mixed form in La Liga as they seek a return to Europe after this debut adventure.
Mikel Arteta will return to Spain insisting that Arsenal's work is not quite done and that he will take this clash as seriously as any other - if that was the case the visitors would doubtless be a hugely popular selection.
But the Gunners are at home to Manchester City on Sunday in a pivotal Premier League clash which will surely be focusing the Spaniard's mind more than this trip.
To that end, and with players crying out for a rest, expect a rash of changes from Arteta and a far greater likelihood of a tight game.
There are financial incentives for Girona to sign off with a win, but they haven't even scored a goal in their last four UEFA Champions League matches.
Michel's men started the season well but after beating Espanyol 4-1 in November their form has dipped.
They have won two of 11 since then, failing to find the net in five of those. On Saturday Bryan Gil scored their only goal in a 2-1 loss at Vallecano, but the ex-Spurs man is suspended against the Gunners.
Girona's one win in this competition was 2-0 at home to a poor Slovan Bratislava and since then they have lost four in a row, at PSV (4-0), Sturm Graz (1-0), at home to Liverpool (1-0) and last week at AC Milan (1-0).
Four of their seven matches have ended in 1-0 defeats so they don't concede many - it's their toothlessness at the other end which is the concern.
A full-strength Arsenal would beat them, but we have seen the struggles the English team have been having minus Bukayo Saka in particular and, to a lesser extent, Gabriel Jesus, and they look absolutely drained.
This is a game to get through using as many fringe players as Arteta wants to risk before the bigger games to come - starting on Sunday.
Arteta would take a point and that may well be what his team collects.
Card Handicap - Girona 0 @ 6/5
Arsenal have behaved impeccably throughout the league phase, winning points rather than yellow or red cards.
After seven rounds of qualifiers they have piled up just ten yellows and only have one man - Gabriel Martinelli - running the gauntlet of a suspension.
Girona, on the other hand, have collected 19 yellows and one red, shown to right-back Arnau Martinez in the 4-0 defeat at PSV.
Of course Arsenal are building up something of a red-card reputation at home - Myles Lewis-Skelly's controversial dismissal in Saturday's 1-0 win at Wolves, their fourth of the Premier League campaign thus far.
The Londoners have 51 cards totted up in 23 league games, while Girona have 50 in 21 in Spain.
Arsenal can go through the motions here, dominate the game and Girona look the bet on the three-way card handicap off scratch at 6/5.
Girona Over 3.5 Corners @ 5/6
Girona are averaging 5.7 corners per game in the UEFA Champions League this season, Arsenal 5.4.
The Spaniards, perhaps incentivised by a small cash windfall (as well as pride), will want to bow out with a win. They may not be good enough to pull that off, but they can surely clear the 3.5 corner barrier.
They average 5.6 at the Montilivi in La Liga.
Girona | 13.9% |
Draw | 20.0% |
Arsenal | 66.1% |
The odds suggest that Arsenal have a 63.6% chance of beating Girona on Wednesday night, while the BetSie Supercomputer believes there is a 66.1% chance of this happening.
The BetSie Supercomputer believes Girona have a 13.9% of defeating the Gunners, while the draw is estimated at 20%.
A 1-1 draw has a 12.5% chance of happening according to the odds.
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Team: Pau Lopez; Martinez, David Lopez, Juanpe, Frances; Martin, Herrera; Tsygankov, Van de Beek, Danjuma; Ruiz.
Formation: 4-3-3
Team: Raya; Timber, Saliba, Kiwior, Zinchenko; Nwaneri, Jorginho, Merino; Sterling, Trossard, Martinelli.
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