Croatia v Italy Prediction, Tips and Odds: Goals to light up tense tussle

Italy meet Croatia in Leipzig with the two teams looking to secure spots in the knockout phase of the competition and the Vatreni could dish out a second Euros defeat to the Azzurri.

Group B was always seen as the most difficult group at Euro 2024 and, with Spain having already top spot, it means that both Croatia and Italy are under pressure to try and secure their places in the last-16.

Croatia v Italy betting tips and predictions

Croatia to win - 11/5

Croatia need to win to stand a chance of getting out of Group B and they look overpriced to shock Italy by beating the reigning European champions in Leipzig.

Spain's sizzling start has seen them top the group after wins over Croatia and Italy, but it's the results against Albania which have impacted the standings.

Italy managed a 2-1 win over the group winners, whereas Croatia conceded a late equaliser in a thrilling 2-2 draw against the Albanians.

However, it is always dangerous to write off Croatia, who played better than the 3-0 margin of defeat against Spain suggests. You could argue they gave Spain a tougher test than Italy, who lost only 1-0 to La Roja, but were played off the pitch for large spells.

Croatia, who have reached at least the semi-finals of the last two World Cups, still have a high-quality midfield containing Luka Modric, Marcelo Brozovic and Mateo Kovacic and, despite their advancing years, they managed to gain more possession than Spain and it was up to 67 per cent against Albania.

Both teams to score - 4/6

This is do-or-die territory for Croatia and with that desperation there could be a lot of goals, so backing both teams to score makes sense.

Croatia have already conceded five times in two games and coach Zlatko Dalic is clearly unhappy with the balance of his side. 

Josko Gvardiol was moved to centre-back from the left after the first game and Ivan Perisic was brought into the team.

Veteran Perisic has great crossing qualities, but Italy are likely to target him, while on the right Dalic has already used Josip Stanisic and Josip Juranovic.

Italy have been more settled, but they needed a huge stop from Gianluigi Donnarumma to deny Albania in their 2-1 win and the Paris Saint-Germain keeper was at his brilliant best to keep a dominant Spanish side to just one goal on Thursday.

Classy left-back Federico Dimarco has been ruled out for the Azzurri, who are far from watertight even with their best players on the pitch.

Match shots over 26.5 - 5/6

The average match shots is 27.25 for Croatia and Italy's four matches in Germany this summer, but there are more reasons than that to suggest backing over 26.5 match shots is the way to go in Leipzig.

Italy had a healthy 17 shots against Albania in their opener and coach Luciano Spalletti encourages attack-minded football. 

That was his philosophy at Napoli and the Azzurri should get more opportunities to break on a desperate Croatian side than was the case against the more controlled technical ability of Spain in the second round of group matches.

Croatia's two matches have already been chaotic with seven goals and shot tallies of 37 and 27, with Dalic's team having 38 of those 64 efforts.

Luka Modric Player of the Match - 9/1

Luka Modric, at 38, could be facing his international swansong in this fixture if the result goes badly, but the Real Madrid star also thrives on such occasions and is an interesting contender for the player of the match.

He is Croatia's midfield master, completing 144 passes and he has had their most touches (176), while Modric is also unlucky not to have an assist to his name, with wasteful finishing to blame rather than a lack of guile.

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Croatia v Italy odds

Croatia - 11/5
Draw - 11/5
Italy - 13/10

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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