Sporting CP need a minor miracle to progress to the UEFA Champions League last 16 after a 3-0 defeat at home in the first leg but Borussia Dortmund are not in the best of form ahead of the return fixture.
The German heavyweights have only won three of their last 10 games across all competitions but they are strong on the counter and may be able to take advantage as Sporting CP push forward.
With home advantage, Borussia Dortmund may be able to kill this tie off with a win but the best betting angle could be focusing on the player markets.
Contents |
Borussia Dortmund v Sporting CP Prediction
Prediction | BetSie Supercomputer % | Odds | Odds% |
Borussia Dortmund to win | 50.1% | 52.4% | |
Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Sporting CP | N/A | 4.8% |
Key Prediction Stats & Insights
- Borussia Dortmund’s Serhou Guirassy is the UEFA Champions League top scorer with 10 goals.
- Sporting CP have won just one of their last seven away across all competitions (D3, L3).
- Over 2.5 goals has landed in 10 of BVB’s last 11 games.
Borussia Dortmund v Sporting CP Betting Tips
Tip | Current Odds |
Serhou Guirassy anytime goalscorer | |
Borussia Dortmund to win & BTTS | |
Zeno Debast to be booked |
Serhou Guirassy anytime goalscorer - 6/4
A Borussia Dortmund win looks the more likely result but they can afford to lose this game by two goals and still win the tie, so the best angle could be the player markets and the 6/4 on in-form forward Serhou Guirassy to score jumps out.
The Guinea international is the UEFA Champions League’s leading scorer this season with 10 goals in just nine games and he has scored in each of his last five appearances in this competition.
Guirassy has been in fine form in general with six goals in his last seven games overall and Sporting struggled to keep tabs on the 28-year-old in the first meeting. The BVB attacker had a goal and an assist in Lisbon and he should get a few chances on Wednesday as the visitors throw bodies forward in a bid to claw their way back into the tie.
Borussia Dortmund to win & BTTS - 13/5
Borussia Dortmund were deserved winners in the first leg but the scoreline flattered them a little and Sporting can at least salvage a bit of pride by making the return fixture a tighter affair.
The Portuguese big guns lost at Leipzig and Club Brugge in their final two league phase trips but they did at least manage to score in both of those losses.
Sporting have managed just one win in their last seven away games across all competitions but they still have the second best road record in their domestic league and have only failed to score in one away outing all season.
BVB have gone seven games without a clean sheet at Signal Iduna Park so backing the hosts to win and concede in what should be an open game appeals.
Zeno Debast to be booked - 5/1
Sporting midfielder Zeno Debast struggled to cope with Dortmund’s quick play in the first leg and at 5/1 looks a value option to pick up a card.
The Belgian has only been booked once in Portugal’s top tier this season but he has two yellow cards in seven UEFA Champions League games, and averages 0.9 fouls-per-game in this competition.
Debast will be tasked with keeping tabs on the likes of Jamie Gittens and Julian Brandt at various stages on Wednesday, and he may have to resort to a bit of gamesmanship along the way so at a big price he looks a decent card contender.
Borussia Dortmund v Sporting CP Head to Head
Previous Meetings | 5 |
Borussia Dortmund Wins | 4 |
Sporting CP Wins | 1 |
Draws | 0 |
First Game | Sporting 1-2 Dortmund (October 2016) |
Last Game | Sporting 0-3 Dortmund (February 2025) |
Sporting have lost 12 of their previous 14 UEFA away games against German opposition.
Borussia Dortmund have an excellent record against Portuguese teams with 10 wins in 15 matches against opponents from the Primeira Liga.
Supercomputer Prediction
Borussia Dortmund | 50.1% |
Draw | 22.4% |
Sporting CP | 27.5% |
The odds suggest Borussia Dortmund have an 52.4% chance of beating Sporting CP on Wednesday night, while the BetSie Supercomputer believes there is an 50.1% chance of this outcome.
The BetSie Supercomputer believes Sporting CP have a 27.5% chance of securing a victory in Germany.
According to the betting odds, a 3-2 home victory for the hosts has a 4.8% chance of happening.
Predicted Starting Line-ups
Borussia Dortmund
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Team: Kobel; Ryerson, Can, Schlotterbeck, Svensson; Ozcan, Gross; Adeyemi, Brandt, Bynoe-Gittens; Guirassy.
Sporting CP
Formation: 4-3-3
Team: Silva; Fresneda, Diomande, Quaresma, Reis; Debast, Hjulmand, Simoes; Trincao, Biel, Gyokeres.
Read more football betting tips and predictions on site
BETSiE is a projection model operated by bettingexpert and owned by Better Collective. The projections quoted are for informational and entertainment purposes only and should not be construed as definitive advice or predictions. The projections and the BETSiE name are the intellectual property of Better Collective. You may not copy, distribute, or modify the Content without prior written permission, except for personal, non-commercial use.
By using this model, you acknowledge and accept that its projections are estimates and subject to inherent uncertainties, and the model owner will not be liable for any loss or damage, whether direct or indirect, arising from the use of this information in connection with sports betting or any other activity.
18+ | Gambleaware.org
Check out the bet365 betting hub for all the latest UEFA Champions League betting odds.
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
Related Articles
UEFA Champions League
Most penalties scored in the UEFA Champions League since 1992
Find out the top 10 penalty goalscorers in the UEFA Champions League since 1992.
Liam Williams
13 Feb 25
