Benfica claimed a 1-0 win last week at the Stade Louis II and will aim to finish the job and qualify for the last 16 of the UEFA Champions League in Tuesday's second leg.
Vangelis Pavlidis' goal made the difference at Stade Louis II, but they have a poor home record in this competition and a high-scoring contest could play out at the Estadio do SL Benfica.
Contents |
Benfica v Monaco Prediction
Prediction | BetSie Supercomputer % | Odds | Odds % |
Benfica to win | 51.8% | 54.1% | |
Benfica 3-2 Monaco | N/A | 5.3% |
Key Prediction Stats & Insights
Benfica's last six home games have featured three or more goals
Benfica's Vangelis Pavlidis has scored six UEFA Champions League goals
Monaco's Mika Biereth averages 3.4 shots a game in Ligue 1
Benfica v Monaco Betting Tips
Tip | Current Odds |
Benfica to win and over 3.5 goals | |
Vangelis Pavlidis anytime goalscorer | |
Mika Biereth - Over 1.5 shots on target |
Benfica to win and over 3.5 goals - 11/4
If you want entertaining football, then Lisbon has been the city to look to during this season's UEFA Champions League.
Sporting CP's five home games have featured 18 goals, the same number as Benfica's have tallied in one fixture fewer.
After a 4-0 win over Atletico Madrid, the Eagles lost 3-1 to Feyenoord, drew 0-0 against Bologna and spurned a 4-2 lead against Barcelona, conceding three times in the final 12 minutes to lose 5-4, meaning they have won only one of their last eight at home in this competition.
They now face a Monaco team who beat Nantes 7-1 on Saturday and who, in three of their four away league phase games, played their part in matches that featured three or more goals. The anomaly is a 1-0 win in Bologna.
Last week's game at the Stade Louis II was uncharacteristically cagey for Adi Hutter's side and they are sure to take the second leg to their hosts.
With Bruno Lage's team hardly shrinking violets - their last six at home have featured three or more goals - the fixture sets up beautifully, so look for a thriller.
However, the hosts could have too much against a side that hasn't won away in Ligue 1 or the Champions League since November.
Vangelis Pavlidis anytime goalscorer - 1/1
Pavlidis took time to find form after joining Benfica from AZ Alkmaar in the summer, but has suddenly come to life.
A hat-trick against Barcelona on matchday seven was backed up with a goal against Juventus the following week and he has netted eight goals in his last seven in all competitions.
After netting the decisive goal last week, the Greek only got 19 minutes off the bench in Saturday's 1-0 win over Santa Clara and should be fresh and raring to go.
Pavlidis has been directly involved in seven goals in nine UEFA Champions League appearances and might suddenly be the consistent striker the Portuguese club has been lacking in Europe for decades.
Expect the 26-year-old to get in amongst a defence that has kept just one clean sheet in all competitions since November's 1-0 win in Bologna and get chances to add to his tally.
Mika Biereth - Over 1.5 shots on target - 9/4
London-born Danish youth international Mika Biereth has been brilliant since joining Monaco in January, scoring seven times in six games, including his second hat-trick for the club in the win over Nantes.
The 22-year-old is averaging 3.4 shots per game after five Ligue 1 appearances and also netted two UEFA Champions League goals for former club Sturm Graz earlier in the campaign.
Biereth is clearly confident and will look to test a defence that has kept three clean sheets in four away games but conceded seven times in its last two at home, with a 3-2 win over Moreirense following that nine-goal thriller against Barcelona.
Monaco's best play often comes on the break and the former Arsenal youngster seems to have settled into their shape.
He is not shy when it comes to having a go, so back him for over 1.5 efforts.
Benfica v Monaco Head to Head
Previous Meetings | 4 |
Benfica Wins | 3 |
Monaco Wins | 0 |
Draws | 1 |
First Game | Monaco 0-0 Benfica (November 2014) |
Last Game | Monaco 0-1 Benfica (February 2025) |
Tuesday's second leg is the pair's fifth meeting. Monaco have failed to win the previous four and another defeat would see Benfica become the European rival they have played the most without ever beating.
Supercomputer Prediction
Benfica | 51.8% |
Draw | 22.4% |
Monaco | 25.8% |
The odds suggest Benfica have a 54.1% chance of beating Monaco on Tuesday night, while the BetSie Supercomputer believes there is a slightly slimmer 51.8% chance of this outcome.
The BetSie Supercomputer believes Monaco possess a 25.8% chance of winning the match in Portugal.
According to the betting odds, a 3-2 home win has a 5.3% chance of happening.
Predicted Starting Line-ups
Benfica
Formation: 4-3-3
Team: Trubin; Santos, Otamendi, Silva, Carreras; Amdouni, Kokcu, Barreiro; Akturkoglu, Pavlidis, Schjelderup.
Monaco
Formation: 4-4-2
Team: Majecki; Diatta, Salisu, Kehrer, Henrique; Akliouche, Camara, Minamino, Ben Seghir; Embolo, Biereth.
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