Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid: Free Prediction and Tips

The Spanish capital comes to a standstill on Wednesday night when Atletico and Real Madrid reconvene at the Estadio Metropolitano and Steve Davies assesses which side will earn the right to claim a place in the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League quarter-finals.

Real won last week's first leg by the narrowest of 2-1 margins to leave the tie on a knife-edge and there could be little between them again.

Contents

Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid Prediction

Key Prediction Stats & Insights

Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid Free Betting Tips

Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid Head to Head

Supercomputer Prediction

Predicted Starting Line-ups

Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid Prediction

Prediction	BetSie Supercomputer %	Odds	Odds (%)
Real Madrid to win	46.7%	13/8	38.1%
Atletico Madrid 1-2 Real Madrid	N/A	9/1	10%

Key Prediction Stats & Insights

• Real have gone through in 49 of 62 European ties after winning the first leg at home

• Atletico have not had a draw in any of their last 16 UEFA Champions League matches

• In 11 European meetings between the teams, only one has been won by more than one goal after 90 minutes

Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid Free Betting Tips

Tip	Current Odds
Real Madrid to win	13/8
Giuliano Simeone Over 1.5 Tackles	11/8
Kylian Mbappe Anytime Scorer	6/4

Real Madrid to win - 13/8

Seconds out, round two, and unlike in the first tepid skirmish, expect plenty more haymakers to be landed at the Estadio Metropolitano.

Atletico and Madrid rivals Real meet for the second leg of their UEFA Champions League Round-of-16 tie with everything to play for after the 15-time defending champions edged the first encounter by a 2-1 margin.

It was a tense, often turgid affair between two sides with a healthy amount of mutual respect.

Incredibly, given the rivalry and the magnitude of the stakes, there was just one booking at the Bernabeu - and that was for Brahim Diaz celebrating the goal that has put his side into the box seat heading into the second game.

Round one was cagey alright with neither side prepared to expose their chins - but someone has to land a knockout blow at the Metropolitano.

And there are rock-solid grounds for believing that this is where Real do what they do better than anyone, and find a way to win.

Certainly history is on the side of Carlo Ancelotti's men. The Spanish giants have met three times in two-legged UEFA Champions League ties and Real have gone through each time.

Since 2013, they have also met in two UEFA Champions League finals - Real won both, though to emphasise the closeness of the battles, both games went beyond 90 minutes.

Real certainly did enough to win last Tuesday, which is six straight UEFA Champions League victories since their 2-0 loss at Liverpool in late November.

Three of those six wins were on the road, 3-2 at Atalanta and 3-0 at Brest in the group stage and then 3-2 at Manchester City in the Play-off Round first leg.

Real were given a tough run-out by Rayo Vallecano in another Madrid derby at the weekend, their superstar strikers Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior finding the net in a 2-1 win.

Atletico were also involved in a Madrid derby, in their case against Getafe, and were also tested beyond what manager Diego Simeone would have regarded as comfortable. And they lost, 2-1 to two late goals, to cede second spot in the table to Real.

They have won only two of their last seven fixtures in all competitions and there has been an edginess in their game.

Simeone, and many Atletico players, talk of the advantage their supporters can give them at their home stadium and it will be noisy and passionate, of that there's no doubt.

But Real Madrid have seen this film a million times before and we all know how it usually ends.

Real to win in 90 minutes at 13/8 is the suggestion.

Giuliano Simeone Over 1.5 Tackles - 11/8

Real Madrid asked far fewer questions of Atletico's defence at the Bernabeu than many had envisaged, yet they still drew a combined 19 tackles from the visitors.

The second leg will feel different to the first with Atletico needing to be more positive in front of their own fans, but it's hard to imagine the likes of Kylian Mbappe and Rodrygo won't again be on the end of a fair few tackles.

And of course the midfield area will be a battleground where supremacy needs to be sought.

Of the 30 tackles committed in the first leg, 16 of them were in midfield or wide areas.

The boss' son, Giuliano Simeone, was responsible for two of those in the 64 minutes he played on the right side of Atletico's four-man midfield.

He is a player with an eye for goal but also aware of his defensive duties in his dad's side.

The 22-year-old Argentine averages almost a tackle a game in La Liga and also in the UEFA Champions League and in the intensity of this battle is taken to make over 1.5 at 11/8.

Kylian Mbappe Anytime Scorer - 6/4

Kylian Mbappe is in the richest vein of form currently for Real Madrid and is taken to find the net at the Metropolitano.

Any doubts over Mbappe's ability to provide match-winning contributions on the biggest of occasions were well and truly put to bed in the last round when he scored in the 3-2 win at Manchester City and then added a hat-trick in the 3-1 win in the return leg.

The French ace has netted 28 goals in all club competitions this season and has scored seven in his last eight.

In tight games, it may well take a moment of magic to decide and there is no more stylish magician in European football right now than Mbappe.

Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid Head to Head

Previous Meetings	239
Atletico Madrid Wins	58
Real Madrid Wins	116
Draws	65
First Game	Real Madrid 2 At Madrid 1 (1928/29)
Last Game	Real Madrid 2 At Madrid 1 (Mar 4, 2025)

Real Madrid have been twice as successful as Atletico in the Madrid derby, which has been played in all but nine seasons since 1928/29.

The last three La Liga meetings have ended 1-1, most recently on February 8, while five of the last six in all competitions have been drawn after 90 minutes. Both teams have scored in each of the last 10 meetings.

Supercomputer prediction

Atletico Madrid	29.8%
Draw	23.5%
Real Madrid	46.7%

The odds suggest Real Madrid are the favourites to beat Atletico with a 38.1% chance of winning in 90 minutes, with the BetSie Supercomputer also favouring Los Blancos who they give a 46.7% chance of prevailing in normal time.

The BetSie Supercomputer believes the hosts have a 29.8% chances of overcoming their city rivals at the Metropolitano Stadium.

According to the betting odds, a 2-1 away win for Real only has a 10% chance of occurring.

Predicted Starting Line-ups

Atletico Madrid

Formation: 4-4-2
Team: Oblak; Llorente, Giménez, Lenglet, Galán; Simeone, De Paul, Barrios, Lino; Griezmann, Alvarez

Real Madrid

Formation: 4-3-3
Team: Courtois; Valverde, Rüdiger, Raúl Asencio, Mendy; Modrić, Tchouaméni, Bellingham; Rodrygo, Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior

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