Bayer Leverkusen enter the penultimate round of games in the UEFA Champions League group stage sitting fourth in the standings and knowing a win over Atletico Madrid would put them on the brink of moving straight into the last 16.
Atletico are just one point behind their visitors but are reeling after seeing their long winning run ended by a shock domestic loss on Saturday.
Xabi Alonso's Leverkusen will fancy their chances heading to the Spanish capital for what looks set to be a closely-fought contest.
Contents |
Tip | Current Odds |
Bayer Leverkusen to win | |
Florian Wirtz to score or assist | |
Half With Most Goals – 2nd Half |
Bayer Leverkusen to win – 9/5
Diego Simeone must quickly try and lift his Atletico Madrid side after Saturday's shock La Liga loss at Leganes.
That 1-0 reverse halted a run of 15 consecutive wins in all competitions, the longest winning sequence in the history of the club. They could have avoided a defeat, but Antoine Griezmann missed the target with a penalty in the final minute.
They now face a Bayer Leverkusen side that may sense blood when they venture out at the Estadio Metropolitano.
The Bundesliga champions are one point and seven places above Atleti in the congested group-stage table with two rounds of games remaining.
A win for Alonso's side would see them all but locking in a top-eight finish and automatic passage to the last 16.
Leverkusen were dispatched by Liverpool 4-0 at Anfield on matchday four but, that aside, they have only conceded one goal in their other five UEFA Champions League games this season.
Last time out, they became the first side to breach Inter Milan's defence in the competition this season, a game that should set them up well for this assignment against a home side that are routinely hard to break down.
Atleti have, however, conceded 10 goals in six games in this competition, almost alarming for a Simeone side, and Leverkusen put two past them home and away when they met in the 2022/23 group phase.
Though they have never beaten Atleti in Madrid, the Germans have avoided defeat three times in four games previously and might break new ground now by edging this encounter.
Florian Wirtz to score or assist – 13/8
Florian Wirtz, now 21, is maturing into a sublime talent for Bayer Leverkusen and is in the process of having his best ever season.
He scored 11 league goals in 32 games during the unbeaten title win last season and is already on nine after 18 appearances this season. To go with that, the playmaker has five UEFA Champions League goals already in six games leaving him just two behind leading marksman Robert Lewandowski.
Since the December win over Inter Milan, Wirtz has started four Bundesliga games and played a second-half cameo in a 3-2 victory at Borussia Dortmund.
In that sequence he has scored four goals and registered five assists, including a brace in the weekend win over Borussia Monchengladbach. He could be key to unlocking things for the visiting side.
Half With Most Goals – 2nd Half – 21/20
There is a lot at stake in this game, with both teams knowing three points would be a massive help in pushing them directly into the last 16.
Atleti may be content to allow Leverkusen, who have held 52.3 percent possession on average during their group phase campaign, to dominate the ball.
When these teams last met, the visitors here led 1-2 at half-time before it ended 2-2.
Previous to that, nine of the 13 goals scored in five meetings were scored after the half-time break. That trend may be restored now.
Prediction | BetSie Supercomputer % | Odds | Odds % |
Leverkusen to win | 37.2% | 35.7% | |
Leverkusen win 2-1 | N/A | 9.1% |
Atletico Madrid | 38.1% |
Draw | 24.7% |
Bayer Leverkusen | 37.2% |
The odds suggest that Bayer Leverkusen have a 35.7% chance of beating Atletico Madrid on Tuesday night, while the BetSie Supercomputer believes there is just a 37.2% chance of that happening.
The BetSie Supercomputer believes that Atletico Madrid are the narrow favourites and have a 38.1% chance of winning their upcoming game against Bayer Leverkusen.
A 2-1 victory for Bayer Leverkusen has a 9.1% chance of happening according to the betting odds.
Formation: 4-4-2
Team: Oblak; Molina, Le Normand, Lenglet, Galan; Simeone, De Paul, Barrios, Gallagher; Griezmann, Alvarez.
Formation: 3-4-2-1
Team: Hradecky; Arthur, Tah, Tapsoba; Terrier, Andrich, Xhaka, Grimaldo; Tella, Wirtz; Schick.
Read more football betting tips and predictions on site.
BETSiE is a projection model operated by bettingexpert and owned by Better Collective. The projections quoted are for informational and entertainment purposes only and should not be construed as definitive advice or predictions. The projections and the BETSiE name are the intellectual property of Better Collective. You may not copy, distribute, or modify the Content without prior written permission, except for personal, non-commercial use.
By using this model, you acknowledge and accept that its projections are estimates and subject to inherent uncertainties, and the model owner will not be liable for any loss or damage, whether direct or indirect, arising from the use of this information in connection with sports betting or any other activity.
18+ | Gambleaware.org
Check out the bet365 betting hub for all the latest UEFA Champions League betting odds.
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.