Aston Villa v Paris Saint-Germain: Prediction and Tips

Paris Saint-Germain have one foot in the UEFA Champions League semi-finals after last week's home win over Aston Villa and James Milton expects the French champions to complete the job at Villa Park.

An injury-time strike from left-back Nuno Mendes gave PSG a 3-1 victory in the first leg of their quarter-final tie and the scoreline was a fair reflection of their dominance.

Villa had taken a surprise lead in Paris before crumbling under relentless pressure from the hosts and PSG enjoyed their last visit to England, knocking out Liverpool at Anfield in the round of 16.

Contents

Aston Villa v Paris Saint-Germain Prediction

Key Prediction Stats & Insights

Aston Villa v Paris Saint-Germain Betting Tips

Aston Villa v Paris Saint-Germain Head to Head

Supercomputer Prediction

Predicted Starting Line-ups

Aston Villa v Paris Saint-Germain Prediction

Prediction	BetSie Supercomputer %	Odds	Odds (%)
Paris Saint-Germain to win	46.4%	11/10	47.6%
Aston Villa 1-2 Paris Saint-Germain	N/A	8/1	11.1%

Key Prediction Stats & Insights

• Aston Villa have won eight of their last nine matches in all competitions 

• Villa have kept only two clean sheets in 16 Premier League home games this season 

• Paris Saint-Germain have scored 25 goals in their last eight UEFA Champions League matches

 Aston Villa v Paris Saint-Germain Betting Tips

Tip	Current Odds
Draw-PSG Half Time/Full Time	9/2
Over 1.5 second-half goals	4/5
Matty Cash to be booked	11/4

Draw-Paris Saint-Germain Half Time/Full Time - 9/2

Villa's 3-0 Premier League win at bottom club Southampton on Saturday extended their hot streak to eight victories in their last nine matches in all competitions.

The one blot on that record was last week's 3-1 quarter-final first-leg defeat to Paris Saint-Germain, who racked up 29 shots against Villa, 10 of which were on target.

Unai Emery's men could even afford to miss two penalties against the relegated Saints but there is no such margin for error on Tuesday evening.

Emery is renowned as a masterful tactician in European knockout ties and he will need to produce something special if Villa are to make the semis.

Chasing a two-goal deficit in the second leg is never ideal and it looks a brutally tough task against a team as slick on the counter-attack as PSG.

Wingers Desire Doue and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia scored brilliant goals in the first leg, when all 10 of PSG's starting outfield players had at least one shot.

Nuno Mendes tucked away PSG's third goal in stoppage-time after fellow full-back Achraf Hakimi had an effort ruled out for offside.

Even if Villa can score two or three times at their home fortress, it is hard to see them keeping out a PSG side with goal threats all over the pitch.

The visitors can afford to bide their time before pouncing when Villa start to commit players forward so the draw-PSG selection – a winning bet in the first leg – appeals again in the Half Time/Full Time market.

Over 1.5 second-half goals - 4/5

Given the balance of the tie, Villa will have to take risks as the game goes on so backing over 1.5 second-half goals looks a solid bet.

PSG scored twice after the break in the first leg and Villa's last six Premier League matches have produced 14 second-half goals.

PSG boss Luis Enrique should have some attacking aces up his sleeve on the bench as Portugal striker Goncalo Ramos and talented young French internationals Bradley Barcola and Warren Zaire-Emery came on as substitutes in last week's clash.

All three of Villa's goals at Southampton were scored by subs in the final 20 minutes and an entertaining second half is expected on Tuesday.

Matty Cash to be booked - 11/4

With fellow right-back Andres Garcia ineligible for the UEFA Champions League, Matty Cash looks set for another testing night against PSG's wide players.

Cash came up against PSG goalscorers Kvaratskhelia and Mendes last week and the Poland international was taken off at half-time having been booked in the 17th minute.

Despite playing only 45 minutes, Cash made three tackles – only Villa's Boubacar Kamara and PSG's Doue made more – and he has been cautioned in five of his last 13 league starts at right-back.

Aston Villa v Paris Saint-Germain Head to Head

Previous Meetings	1
Aston Villa Wins	0
Paris Saint-Germain Wins	1
Draws	0
First Game	PSG 3-1 Aston Villa (April 2025)
Last Game	PSG 3-1 Aston Villa (April 2025)

Last week's UEFA Champions League quarter-final first leg in Paris was the first competitive meeting between Villa and PSG.

Morgan Rogers gave Villa a first-half lead but PSG hit back to win 3-1 thanks to fine strikes from Desire Doue and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia either side of half-time and an injury-time goal from left-back Nuno Mendes.

Supercomputer Prediction

Aston Villa	27.2%
Draw	26.5%
Paris Saint-Germain	46.4%

The odds suggest Paris Saint-Germain are favourites to beat Aston Villa in this UEFA Champions League quarter-final second leg and have a 47.6% chance of winning in 90 minutes, while the BetSie Supercomputer gives the away side a 46.4% chance of winning the match.

The BetSie Supercomputer believes Aston Villa have a 27.2% chance of winning this match against PSG in front of their home fans.

According to the betting odds, travelling side PSG have an 11.1% chance of beating Villa 2-1 away from home.

Predicted Starting Line-ups

Aston Villa

Formation: 4-2-3-1
Team: Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Torres, Digne; Kamara, Tielemans; Rogers, McGinn, Ramsey; Watkins

Paris Saint-Germain

Formation: 4-3-3
Team: Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes; Neves, Vitinha, Ruiz; Doue, Dembele, Kvaratskhelia

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BETSiE is a projection model operated by bettingexpert and owned by Better Collective. The projections quoted are for informational and entertainment purposes only and should not be construed as definitive advice or predictions. The projections and the BETSiE name are the intellectual property of Better Collective. You may not copy, distribute, or modify the Content without prior written permission, except for personal, non-commercial use

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