Ajax v PSV Eindhoven: Prediction, Tips and Odds

Dutch giants Ajax and PSV Eindhoven clash at the Johan Cruyff Arena on Saturday evening as the hosts aim to continue their resurgence. 

Francesco Farioli has led Ajax into second following five consecutive victories in all competitions, but the eight-point gap to PSV shows the current gulf between these two old rivals. 

With PSV yet to drop a point in their Eredivisie title-defence they’re aiming to lay down a marker with a victory in Amsterdam. 

Ajax vs PSV betting tips and predictions

PSV to win - 23/20

Ajax clearly went into this season aiming to rebuild after their struggles last term, so sitting second after nine matches is not a huge disappointment. Not only are they chasing down PSV, but they finished behind Twente and AZ last term and almost 20 points shy of second-placed Feyenoord.

Farioli’s men won 2-0 at Feyenoord in midweek to maintain their winning run, putting them three points clear of the Rotterdam outfit, with a game in hand to boot. However, they were outplayed across the 90 minutes and scored with their only two shots on target. Feyenoord’s failure to make more of their 15 shots cost them, as they posted more than double Ajax’s 0.6 Expected Goals tally.

There will be less room for error against PSV, who are clearly still lengths ahead of the rest of the Eredivisie. After falling seven points shy of the title in 2022/23 under Ruud van Nistelrooy, PSV turned to former Ajax boss Peter Bosz, who has won 39 of his 44 league games in charge.

The Dutch champions have won 10 of their last 12 away games in the league, scoring 42 goals in that sequence, and they are good value to maintain their perfect start. 

Johan Bakayoko to score anytime - 13/5

Belgian winger Bakayoko is one of the Red Devils’ big hopes when it comes to replacing their current golden generation. The 21-year-old had a hand in 21 goals last term, appearing in all but one of their matches on the way to the title. That includes a blistering finish to the campaign when he scored in six of their final eight games. 

Bakayoko is threatening to improve his scoring output this term, having netted three goals already. His underlying numbers have also been good, having record 1.9 Expected Goals. He’s had 32 shots across his 12 games for PSV this term and at least one shot on target in four of his last five appearances.

Bakayoko tooks overpriced as a scoring option having found the net in last weekend’s 6-0 victory against PEC Zwolle. He showed little fear in clashes with Ajax last season, taking eight shots across the two meetings. Given that the 21-year-old is looking better in front of goal, he’s a well-priced anytime goalscorer option. 

Youri Baas and Mauro Junior to be booked - 14/1

These two sides are well disciplined when it comes to fouls, but their previous six encounter have seen 34 yellow cards and a red shared between them. That is likely to be the case once more this weekend, meaning there’s value to be found on the bookings front.

First up, Ajax’s 21-year-old defender Youri Baas has eight fouls to his name this season and he’s been cautioned twice already. He’s going to face his biggest test of the campaign on Saturday against a PSV side that has racked up 35 goals this term.

Meanwhile, PSV’s Brazilian right-back Mauro Junior is one to watch for a caution. He has yet to be booked in the league, but the fact that he has two bookings in three Champions League appearances this season suggests he could find the step up in opposition tough.

The full-back has made limited appearances in recent years but he had seven Eredivisie cautions between 2019 and 2022. The Dutch champions tend to attack down their right flank, which should see the likes of Bakayoko cutting inside and running at Baas. However, they could be caught short on that side too, putting Mauro Junior in a compromising position.

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Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven odds

Ajax - 21/10
Draw - 14/5
PSV Eindhoven - 23/20

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.