FedEx St Jude Championship: Prediction, Tips and Odds

The FedEx Cup Playoffs get underway at TPC Southwind as the top 70 players in this season's standings jockey for position ahead of the TOUR Championship in two weeks' time.

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FedEx St Jude Championship Tips

Win: Sam Burns (40/1), Eric Cole (100/1)
Top 10: Hideki Matsuyama (9/4), Aaron Rai (16/5), Billy Horschel (16/5), Justin Thomas (16/5)
Top 20: Davis Thomspon (17/10), Adam Scott (6/4)

TPC Southwind course guide

The 1988 design from Ron Prichard began a regular run on TOUR in 1989 and continues today. After graduating from a World Golf Championship event in the summer from 2019 through 2021, TPC Southwind will kick off the FedExCup Playoffs for the third consecutive year.

Like many courses in the hot and humid zone, TPC Southwind changed out Bentgrass greens to Champion Bermuda before the 2012 edition. The greens, on average spanning 4,200 square feet, are the third-smallest targets on TOUR annually and will run 12.5 and up on the Stimpmeter.

Tipping out at 7,243 yards and playing to Par-70, the test off the tee, into and around the greens is the challenge. Meyer Zoysiagrass fairways are framed by three inches of nest-y Bermuda rough and water penalty areas on 11 holes.

The Par-70 has one of the easiest pairs of Par-5 holes on TOUR. Last year, more than 53 percent of the field birdied the 579-yard challenge on the front and 530-yard shorty on the back. The four Par-3 holes didn’t provide much resistance, either. With only one of the four playing over 200 yards, the quartet registered under par in 2023.

While most will score on the Par-3 and Par-5 holes, the dozen Par-4 chances will be the toughest test. Avoiding bogeys and keeping it between the lines on the four-shot chances provided parts of the winning formula in the last five seasons.

The average winning score over the last five editions, all limited field events, is 15.5 under par. The scoring average has been under par in all five tournaments.

Justin Rose signed for 61 in Round 3 last season, tying the course tournament record.

FedEx St Jude Championship preview

Hosting for the first time in 1958, Memphis continues to be the home to a PGA TOUR event in 2024.

The Playoffs began in 2007 with a four-event series to determine the champion. Formerly the Westchester Classic, the opening event of the Playoffs was contested on historic East Coast tracks until migrating to Memphis for the 2022 edition.

The first two winners of the Playoffs in Memphis featured fantastic ball-strikers Lucas Glover (not qualified) last year after Will Zalatoris won the first edition in 2022. Both winners needed a playoff to lift the trophy.

Justin Thomas, the winner of the World Golf Championship in 2020, is the only champion of three from that event (2019-21) entered this week.

The Playoff format changed with the 2023 edition. Only 70 players are eligible and that continues for the 2024 tournament.

The no-cut event guarantees four rounds of stroke play to push into the top 50 for the BMW Championship next week outside Denver.

The winner will pocket $3.6 million of the $20 million prize pool plus 2,000 FedExCup points, quadruple the amount given to winners during the regular season. For the Playoffs, all point values are quadrupled.

Top of the Board

Scottie Scheffler (15/4): The only man in the field with a gold medal and six wins, he is still looking for his first top-10 payday in the land of Elvis. The Texan, ranked No. 1 in the Official World Golf Rankings, is also hunting for his first Playoff title.

Xander Schauffele (8/1): The winner at East Lake in his rookie season of 2017, the two-time major champion is flying along this summer. Making his seventh start at TPC Southwind, his T6 from 2020 is the only finish inside the top 10. Only Scheffler has more top-10 results this season than the Californian.

Rory McIlroy (10/1): The summer of going close extended with T5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics. Close calls at the U.S. Open and Genesis Scottish Open suggest he’s honing in on another title. A big Sunday in 2023, posting 65 in the final, saw him miss the playoff by a shot and claim his best finish near the Big River. The three-time winner of the Playoffs knows this is a marathon, not a sprint. He’s never won the first event or at TPC Southwind.

Collin Morikawa (12/1): A winless 2024 sounds disappointing, but T23 or better since the second week in April paints a different picture. Arriving for the 2020 edition, he’s posted T26 or better, including T13-T5 over the last two editions, suggesting he’s comfortable in the heat and humidity of summer in West Tennessee. With some of the friendliest Champion Bermudagrass surfaces, he should be on the radar.

Ludvig Åberg (20/1): There’s no questioning his talent, but relying on the consistency to perform on the big stage event in and out might be weighing on him. Summers in Europe are different from the heat and humidity of the States.

Tommy Fleetwood (22/1): Did the silver medal performance in Paris spend the final gas in the tank? After missing the cut at The Open, the Englishman rode the wave of patriotism to the medal stand. Sitting at No. 32 in the Playoffs, a big result is not required this week. In four previous visits, he cashed T4 on debut in 2019 and missed the playoffs by a shot last year. Torn.

Patrick Cantlay (22/1): The 2021 FedExCup Playoffs winner returns to the scene of his 2023 playoff defeat by Lucas Glover (not qualified). Without a win on his ledger in 2024, the Californian flashed at Harbour Town (T3), another track with small greens, plus big paydays at Pinehurst No. 2 (T3) and TPC River Highlands (T5).

Hideki Matsuyama (25/1): Yet to win a Playoff event in his previous 10 years, last year was the first time the Japanese start did not make the top 30 at East Lake. Sitting eighth in the standings entering the week buoyed by a win at The Genesis Invitational at Riviera last winter, he will return to Georgia for the final in 2024. The bronze medal winner in Paris shared second after falling in a playoff in 2021.

Tom Kim (28/1): Finishing second in a playoff to his best friend Scheffler in Connecticut, the young Korean star has split time missing the cut or cashing inside the top 15 in his last four starts. A superb driver of the golf ball, his results of T24 last year and T13 suggest he’s comfortable in Memphis.

Players to consider for Top 10 or Top 20 action:

Billy Horschel (40/1): Nothing better than a front-row seat last week at Wyndham to inspire a big result on another course he plays well.

Justin Thomas (40/1): The winner here by three shots in 2020 has been playing himself into contention recently. Never worse than T26, the two-time major champion on Bermudagrass should feature this week.

Aaron Rai (40/1): The only blemish in his last five outings was playing the weekend and fading at The Open Championship. The first-time winner on TOUR last week in North Carolina will look to make it back-to-back titles. Anyone who hits that many fairways and greens cannot be omitted this week.

Sam Burns (50/1): The angle of picking apart a tee-to-green challenge won’t bother the two-time winner at Innisbrook. Knocked out in a playoff in 2021, I return to a guy with results on Bermudagrass.

Adam Scott (60/1): Ranked No. 46 entering the week, the Australian knows it is time to continue the form he found in Great Britain. Back-to-back top-10 paydays and a nice break will have him ready for the challenge this week.

Davis Thompson (70/1): The John Deere winner knocked off the rust last week with T12 at Wyndham to register his 12th top-25 payday of the season. Don’t tell anyone he is currently ninth in SG: Total!

Eric Cole (100/1): Sitting outside the top 50 (No. 54), the Florida man will look to add to his recent top-10 haul. Posting T7 or better in three of his last five events, including last weekend in Greensboro, he knows another big payday is required to continue in the Playoffs.