Monaco Grand Prix: Prediction, Tips and Odds

Formula 1's headline event, the Monaco Grand Prix, takes place this Sunday and Racing Post's Adam Scriven has picked out his three best bets for the big race.

Monaco Grand Prix betting tips and predictions

Charles Leclerc - 9/2

Three-time world champion Max Verstappen has looked a lot less invincible in the last couple of races, as McLaren's Lando Norris has laid down a strong challenge and in Monaco this weekend Ferrari could join the battle at the front.

The Scuderia brought a significant car update to Imola for last weekend's Emilia Romagna Grand Prix and, although Charles Leclerc thrilled the Tifosi with a podium finish, he and the team were left a little disappointed.

Leclerc topped both Friday practice sessions and looked in great shape, but when everyone's engines were turned up for qualifying he could manage only the fourth-best time, just over two tenths of a second off the pace.

The team regretted focusing their engine settings on corner exits, at the expense of top speed, and that proved costly.

Although Leclerc was able to keep pace with Norris for most of the race, he had little chance of passing the McLaren and his hope dropped to zero after a mistake at a chicane took the life out of his tyres.

But in Monaco things could be very different, as top speed is virtually irrelevant while getting away from the many corners is key to lap times.

Leclerc has twice been the fastest qualifier at Monaco, but never finished on the podium. In 2021 he crashed after setting the pole position time, but undiagnosed damage meant he was unable to start the race.

The following year he would probably have won but for a terrible tactical blunder from the team amid changing weather conditions.

The Monegasque racer is certainly due a change of luck in his home event, and there is enough to recommend him this weekend to warrant a bet.

Nico Hulkenberg points finish - 2/1

Veteran racer Nico Hulkenberg has been a model of consistency this season, with six consecutive top-11 finishes including picking up points in three races.

His Haas team have some new parts for this weekend, specifically designed to meet the unique demands of the twisting Monte Carlo street circuit.

The German is something of a qualifying specialist and that is more of a positive factor at Monaco above anywhere else given the difficulty of overtaking at the track.

Hulkenberg has started each of the last three races in the top 10 and if he can once again hustle his Haas into Q3 then he would have every chance of hanging on for another top-10 finish.

Total finishers over 17.5 - 1/1

Despite its reputation as the most challenging circuit of the year, the Monaco Grand Prix tends to see a lot of cars classified as finishing the race.

In order to be classified, a driver must complete at least 90% of the race distance, so any drivers dropping out in the last few laps are still given an official finishing position.

Although barriers line the circuit for pretty much the whole lap, light contact with them tends to go unpunished and four of the last five runnings of the race have seen at least 18 cars classified as finishers.

Even last season, when a sudden downpour saw the drivers struggling for grip on slick tyres on a wet circuit for a while, there were officially 19 cars still running at the end.

All of this year's seven races have seen at least 17 classified finishers, so a bet on 18 or more drivers reaching the finish looks the way to go. 

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Monaco Grand Prix odds

Outright winner

Max Verstappen - 4/5
Charles Leclerc - 9/2
Lando Norris - 5/1
Oscar Piastri - 10/1
Carlos Sainz - 14/1

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.