Kimi Antonelli needs to finish in ninth place or better to clinch the F1 World Drivers' Championship on Sunday even if polesitter Lewis Hamilton wins the Mexican Grand Prix.
Hamilton is a remote third in the drivers' standings and only a win for either him or second-placed George Russell could prolong the title fight even if Antonelli fails to score.
It's Hamilton's first Grand Prix pole of the season, although he has topped a qualifying session before as he was on pole for the sprint race at Silverstone.
Antonelli qualified only fifth-fastest in Mexico but he will start the race in a comfortable fourth position thanks to the one-place grid penalty handed to Max Verstappen for his skirmish with Liam Lawson of Racing Bulls in practice on Friday.
The Italian leads the standings by a massive 123 points with only five races left after his impressive win in the United States last week and history looks set to be made at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez today.
Antonelli is the 5/1 fourth favourite for the race but Hamilton is the market leader at 6/4 to secure his second win for Ferrari.
Mexican Grand Prix Tips Summary
Best Bet - Charles Leclerc top 2 finish @ 21/20
Alternative Bet - Ryo Hirakawa to win Group 4 @ 13/2
Bet Builder - Max Verstappen top 3 finish, Lando Norris top 6 finish, Pierre Gasly points finish, Arvid Lindblad points finish @ 41/10
Mexican Grand Prix Predictions
Best Bet: Charles Leclerc top 2 finish @ 21/20
Charles Leclerc rewarded followers of these previews in Austin last week as he finished second after being our Best Bet for the United States Grand Prix as a 16/1 each-way chance, and the Ferrari driver can have another strong outing in Mexico City.
Leclerc looks well worth backing at 21/20 for a top-2 finish at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez even though he will be slightly disappointed to have qualified only third.
The Monegasque driver had looked the man to beat for most of the weekend as he set the fastest times in both of Friday's practices, and he was the leading Ferrari in third practice and the second session of qualifying.
He wasn't able to claim his first pole of the season but he looks confident in the car this week and should still be in the hunt for victory. He has finished second in the last two races in Singapore and the United States and has not finished below fourth in the last five rounds.
George Russell is second on the grid for Mercedes but the British driver has admitted his laps this weekend have been either very good or very bad and while it came right for him in Q3, he looks vulnerable to the consistent pace of the Ferrari in the race.
Antonelli starts fourth, but the young sensation said he has been feeling tense and also low on energy after being ill earlier in the week, so a comfortable cruise to the title looks more likely than a fierce fight to win from the Mercedes ace.
Alternative Bet: Ryo Hirakawa to win Group 4 @ 13/2
There's an unexpected new name on the grid in Mexico City as sports car champion Ryo Hirakawa replaces the out-of-favour Esteban Ocon at Haas.
The Japanese driver had already taken part in the first practice session in a scheduled change but was surprisingly put back in the car for Saturday's action after Ocon apparently had a falling-out with the team.
Hirakawa qualified only 18th, but that might give a false impression of his prospects in his first F1 race as he met traffic problems on his final run.
Up against the Williams pair of Carlos Sainz and Alex Albon, and Lance Stroll of Aston Martin, he looks a big price at 13/2 to finish best of that quartet, having been faster than Sainz in first practice and with his Haas teammate Ollie Bearman having been much faster than the Williams in qualifying, highlighting his car's potential.
Mexican Grand Prix Bet Builder Tips
- Max Verstappen top 3 finish
- Lando Norris top 6 finish
- Pierre Gasly points finish
- Arvid Lindblad points finish
Pays 41/10
For a four-leg Bet Builder on Sunday's showdown in Mexico City, begin by taking Max Verstappen to extend his run of podium finishes to seven races.
The Dutch driver is only fifth on the grid but would have gone close to taking pole if not for making an error on his final lap and he finally seemed happy with his car on Saturday.
Verstappen is the most successful driver at the track with five wins in Mexico and, while overtaking is not easy there, he should have the pace to make his way into the top three.
World champion Lando Norris turned in some strong laps on Saturday but was able to qualify only sixth. The British driver won this race last season and while a repeat is not likely as he struggles for consistency in his 2026 car, he should at least make the top six for the third race in succession.
Add points finishes for Pierre Gasly of Alpine and Arvid Lindblad of Racing Bulls. Gasly starts ninth after finishing 10th in Austin, while Lindblad will be one place ahead in eighth and has made the points in 10 of the last 13 races.
Learn more about how Bet Builders work in our Bet Builder guide.
Key Race Stats
- Mercedes have won 12 of this season's 18 races
- Max Verstappen has had six consecutive podium finishes
- Verstappen has won this race five times
- Lando Norris has finished second and first in Mexico in the last two seasons
- Arvid Lindblad has finished in the points at 10 of the last 13 races
- George Russell has not finished higher than eighth in the last three rounds
Read more F1 betting tips and predictions on site.
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
