Bettors have an unusual puzzle to solve in the Italian Grand Prix on Sunday after 250/1 shot Pierre Gasly took a shock pole position for Alpine.
Gasly, who started the week as a 500/1 shot to win the race, is now 12/1 fourth-favourite to record the second victory of his F1 career, with the first having come at this track for the AlphaTauri team six years ago.
George Russell of Mercedes is the 5/6 favourite as he looks to secure his third win of the season, but the Ferraris of Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton are close behind him on the grid.
Championship leader Kimi Antonelli starts at the back of the grid after exceeding the permitted number of power-unit components, and the Italian is 20/1 to find a path to glory in his home race.
Italian Grand Prix Tips Summary
Best Bet - George Russell to win the race @ 5/6
Alternative Bet - Lando Norris podium finish @ 11/4
Bet Builder - Lewis Hamilton to beat Charles Leclerc (Race Match Bet), Kimi Antonelli top 6 finish, Lando Norris top 6 finish, Arvid Lindblad points finish @ 27/4
Italian Grand Prix Prediction
Best Bet: George Russell to win the race @ 5/6
George Russell has an extra obstacle to overcome as he bids to take advantage of his Mercedes teammate Kimi Antonelli's adversity in the Italian Grand Prix, with wildcard polesitter Pierre Gasly ahead of him on the grid.
Russell had been on track to maximise his opportunity when he was fastest in the first run of the third qualifying session, but a fantastic late effort by the French driver gave Alpine the pole by just 0.060 seconds.
The Mercedes has looked the fastest car overall this weekend, although the top teams are all closely matched at the iconic circuit known as the Cathedral of Speed.
Russell can expect an early challenge from Ferrari but if Mercedes get their pit-stop strategy right he looks well placed to grab his third win of the season and reduce the gap to Antonelli in the championship.
Alternative Bet: Lando Norris podium finish @ 11/4
The final qualifying session went wrong for world champion Lando Norris as his teammate Oscar Piastri failed to negotiate the first chicane on his final run successfully and was unable to provide the expected slipstream for him.
Norris, who has revived hopes of retaining his world title with wins in the last two races in Hungary and the Netherlands, had been having another strong weekend generally, and had been up with the pace in the first two segments of qualifying, so all hope is not lost even though he will start only eighth on the grid.
The McLaren driver has the car to make progress in the race and working his way up to a third consecutive podium finish should be his target at a track where he has finished third and second in the last two seasons.
Italian Grand Prix Bet Builder Tips
Lewis Hamilton to beat Charles Leclerc (Race Match Bet)
Kimi Antonelli top 6 finish
Lando Norris top 6 finish
Arvid Lindblad points finish
Pays 27/4
For a four-leg Bet Builder on the Italian Grand Prix that pays out at 27/4 if successful, start by taking Lewis Hamilton to finish ahead of his Ferrari teammate Charles Leclerc.
Like Norris, circumstances conspired against Hamilton in qualifying as Leclerc was delayed leaving the pit-lane and unable to provide any assistance on his last run, and he did well to go fifth-fastest in the circumstances.
Leclerc and Hamilton were promoted to third and fourth on the grid respectively when Piastri was handed a three-place penalty and Hamilton, who finished ahead of Leclerc at Zandvoort two weeks ago, has shown enough this weekend to suggest he is worth backing as the outsider in the Ferrari match bet for the race.
Add Norris for a less challenging top-six finish, and also take Antonelli to salvage some solid points by making his way into the first six places.
The Italian should have one of the fastest cars on the track, and Mercedes chose to take his penalty at this circuit as overtaking is easier there than at most other circuits.
Complete the bet by taking Racing Bulls' Arvid Lindblad to finish in the points. The British rookie was seventh in all three practice sessions and has scored points in six of the last seven races. He can add to his tally from ninth on the grid.
Key Race Stats
Mercedes have won eight of this season's first 12 races
Lando Norris has won the last two races
Only one of the last six Italian Grands Prix has been won from pole position
Charles Leclerc has set the fastest lap in each of the last two races
Kimi Antonelli has won only one of the last six races
Max Verstappen has won this race in three of the last four years
Read more F1 betting tips and predictions on site
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
