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Emilia Romagna Grand Prix: Prediction, Tips and Odds

The F1 season is suddenly looking much more competitive after McLaren's Lando Norris triumphed in Miami and the Racing Post's Phil Agius has picked out his three best bets for the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix at Imola on Sunday.

Emilia Romagna Grand Prix

Emilia Romagna Grand Prix betting tips and predictions

Lando Norris top 2 finish - 7/5

Lando Norris finally became an F1 race winner at the 110th attempt in Miami and the McLaren man should at least be in the mix to claim another in his 111th race.

The British driver should really have broken his duck much earlier, notably in the 2021 Russian Grand Prix when a late rain storm scuppered his chances when he was well on his way to victory.

Few people have ever doubted that Norris has the talent to win races regularly if he has the car to do it and the upgrades McLaren delivered in Florida looked to be exactly what he needed.

Max Verstappen was not seen at his best in Miami having sustained floor damage when running over a trackside bollard, but once clear of traffic Norris's lap times had been right there with Verstappen's even before the Dutchman hit trouble.

Miami did not look to be an ideal track for McLaren to display their improvement, as they fare best on tracks with high-speed corners, while the American venue is mostly low-speed corners and straights. 

This circuit is similar but with more fast curves and the overall improvement of performance in the papaya-coloured cars should see them going well again.

There was no race at the track last year due to floods in the area but Norris has gone well there previously. In 2022 he finished third from fifth on the grid and he was also on the podium in 2021, that time from seventh on the grid.

Verstappen won both of those races, having retired when Lewis Hamilton won at Imola in 2020 and remains the man to beat, but his odds look cramped given the increased competition Red Bull are now facing.

Taking Norris in the win-only market may be over-ambitious but backing him to collect a top-two finish at 7/5 looks realistic.

Carlos Sainz podium finish - 12/5

It's Ferrari's turn to unleash some major upgrades this week and if their new parts are anywhere near as successful as McLaren's were, they should be competing at the front too.

The Italian team didn't have as much ground to make up on Red Bull in any case having already collected six podium finishes in the first six races of the season, but only one of those came in the last two races and they had begun to lose ground.

Carlos Sainz Jr. supplied the team's only win so far this season with a great drive in Australia when Verstappen retired early on and the Spaniard looks underestimated in the podium-finish market this week.

Sainz has finished only fifth at the last two races after taking three podiums in his first four races but it's hard to justify the gap between his odds and those of his team-mate Charles Leclerc.

If Ferrari's upgrades are successful there's a chance both of them could be on the podium, as they were in Melbourne but Sainz has finished ahead of Leclerc in three of the five races they have both started this season.

Sainz has also shown he can race well at this track. In 2022 he moved up from 10th on the grid in the Sprint race to finish fourth, while in 2021 he started seven places behind Leclerc on the grid in 11th but finished just two seconds and one place behind him as they came home fourth and fifth.

If Sainz can get qualifying right this week he should be in contention for the top three on Sunday.

Winning margin under 5 seconds - 5/1

The only grand prix this season that has finished with a winning margin of under five seconds was the Ferrari one-two in Australia but another tighter contest is possible in Imola as Red Bull's rivals catch up.

Verstappen's four wins have come by wide margins of 22, 13, 12 and 13 seconds, while Norris came home 7.6 seconds ahead of the Dutchman in Miami, when Leclerc was just two seconds behind the Red Bull.

It's 8/13 that the winning margin is in double figures again but odds of 5/1 for fewer than five seconds between the first two cars could represent some value.

Read more F1 betting tips and predictions on site.

Emilia Romagna Grand Prix odds

Max Verstappen


Lando Norris


Charles Leclerc


Sergio Perez


Carlos Sainz


Oscar Piastri


View the full market and more odds for the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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