Azerbaijan Grand Prix: Prediction, Tips and Odds

With the European season over, Formula 1 heads to Baku for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, where Ferrari's Charles Leclerc should be full of confidence following his victory at Monza last time out.

That result, aided by a shrewd strategic call, made it seven straight races without a back-to-back winner and further confirmed that this season is a very different beast to 2023, when Max Verstappen won 19 of 22 races, including a run of 10 in a row, on his way to his third world championship.

After a blistering start to this season, Verstappen holds a 62-point lead in the title race, ahead of McLaren's Lando Norris, but the advantage is dwindling.

The Azerbaijan race is the first in a double-header of street tracks, with a trip to Singapore to come next week. 

Azerbaijan Grand Prix betting tips and predictions

Charles Leclerc to win - 9/2

Leclerc's raw form around Baku doesn't make particularly exciting reading, but that doesn't tell the whole story as the Monegasque is a master of the extremely challenging layout.

Leclerc has been on pole position at the track for the last three years, as well as the 2023 sprint race.

The fact that he was unable to convert any of those into race wins owes more to the fact that his cars haven't had the top speed to prevent rivals from passing him on the gargantuan straight.

The Ferrari ace's Monza victory last time out suggests that should not be an issue, while his commanding win in Monaco suggests the car should be able to negotiate the twisty sections of the circuit with ease, too.

Monza is the fastest circuit on the F1 calendar, while Monaco is the slowest, but the common factor between the two tracks is that there are very few fast corners. That is also true of Baku, which comprises the narrow streets of the old town followed by a long blast down the coastal highway, and that combination should play to Ferrari's strengths. 

It is not a great surprise that Lando Norris is preferred in the market. The McLaren is clearly the best car at this stage of the season, and with better starts and strategy calls, he could be running away with this championship.

However, the fact is he has won just twice all season, and may not be one to trust at short odds.

George Russell podium finish - 4/1

After winning three of the four races heading into the summer break, Mercedes have been a bit disappointing in the two events since. However, it has not been as bad as the results suggest.

In the Netherlands, George Russell held a podium position for much of the race until a strategic gamble failed to pay off and he trailed in seventh. Team-mate Lewis Hamilton meanwhile had a disaster in qualifying but showed impressive speed in hauling his car up from 14th on the grid to eighth at the finish.

Monza saw another sloppy qualifying for Hamilton, who felt he should have been on pole position. Russell started third, however, but got squeezed out by the leading McLarens heading into the first corner and suffered front-wing damage.

The team have made massive progress since the start of the year and should not be counted out given their impressive performances in Belgium and Silverstone, and backing Russell to make the podium in Baku looks the best way to support them at the prices.

More information about the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, including how to watch, the schedule, the weather forecast and more.

Alex Albon points finish - 5/6

Williams need every point they can get, but their latest upgrade has put them in a position to start adding to their tally.

Alex Albon qualified his car eighth at Zandvoort, only to be disqualified and forced to start from the back when his floor was found to be slightly too wide.

With the offending excess filed down, the car proved speedy in the race, but having challenged for the top 10 at various stages his tyre strategy didn't pay off and Albon slipped to 14th by the finish.

It was encouraging that Albon was again able to qualify eighth at Monza, a very different circuit to the Netherlands, next time out, and this time he was able to bring the car home ninth, for two points.

Williams will be hoping for a similarly strong performance at Baku, where the talented Thai-British racer looks a decent bet for another top-10 finish. 

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Azerbaijan Grand Prix odds

To win outright

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.