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Eurovision Song Contest 2024: Prediction, Tips and Odds

The Eurovision Song Contest is back on our screens on Saturday night and Racing Post's Phil Agius has picked out his three best bets for the annual music jamboree, which comes from Malmo in Sweden.

Eurovision Song Contest 2024

Eurovision Song Contest betting tips and predictions

Italy each-way - 25/1

The Eurovision Song Contest market has been lively this year with Croatia looking a strong favourite, although late gambles have developed in Israel and France.

Croatia looks set to head into the live show as the favourite, with the price of rock act Baby Lasagna fluctuating around the 1/1 mark, while Israel has been all the rage as expectations rise of a contrarian public vote after the controversy over their participation this year.

The Croats look to have a solid chance of emulating Finland's 2006 winner Lordi, whose Hard Rock Hallelujah blew their rivals off the stage, and they have topped fan polls across Europe in the run-up to the contest. 

Better still they have also received a plum late draw, performing 23rd of the 26 acts. Sweden last year became only the second nation in the last 20 shows to defy a single-digit draw when winning after being handed the ninth slot in the running order.

The plunge on Israel is an unexpected factor that might suggest caution before taking Croatia at short prices and the value in the betting could lie with Italy at attractive each-way odds of 25/1.

The Italians have had a fantastic record in recent years and it looks set to continue with Angelina Mango singing La Noia.

Italy, one of the Big Five nations alongside the UK, France, Spain and Germany, has had a tremendous run in recent years, with top-six finishes in each of the last six competitions.

Maneskin won for Italy in 2021 and their recent results also include a second, fourth, fifth and two sixth places. 

This year's catchy entry is another stormer that should go down well both with the juries and voters at home and it could fare even better than the odds suggest.

Cyprus top-10 finish - 10/1

If you're looking for a longshot that might defy modest expectations, then Cyprus looks a prime candidate. There is no shortage of upbeat dance tracks with a female lead singer in this year's competition, but Cyprus has one of the better ones and a great draw too at 20th in the order.

12 of the last 20 winners have sung 15th or later and Cypriot star Silia Kapsis does a fantastic job with both her singing and dancing at the age of just 17.

Cyprus finished 12th from a poor draw in seventh last year and were runners-up in 2018. This could be another strong year for them and qualifying after performing first in the opening semi-final on Tuesday was a promising sign.

Silia looks overpriced to finish in the top 10.

UK finishing position 21st or better - 5/4

The United Kingdom has a poor recent record at Eurovision, finishing 24th or worse in six of the last eight contests, but Olly Alexander's chances may be slightly better than the finishing-position odds suggest.

Mae Muller flopped in 25th place last year but it's only two years since Sam Ryder finished runner-up with Space Man, giving hope to UK artists that they can still receive votes if the act is good enough.

Alexander is the lead singer of established act Years and Years, who have had success beyond the domestic market and while outright odds of 150/1 are not attractive for his song Dizzy, a more modest target of avoiding the last five in the final standings looks realistic.

Eurovision Song Contest odds

(Odds will display when market is available)

View the full market and more odds for the Eurovision Song Contest on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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