James Milton is backing Serie A side Roma to come out on top in Bucharest on Wednesday night and deny Sevilla a record-extending seventh Europa league crown.
Sevilla are the most successful club in the history of the Europa League, winning all six of the finals in which they have competed – in 2006, 2007, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2020.
The Andalusians are 4/5 to claim a record-extending seventh crown but they face a Roma side managed by Jose Mourinho, who also has a perfect record in European finals, winning five out of five.
The most recent of those triumphs was Roma's Europa Conference League victory over Feyenoord last season and the Serie A side are 1/1 to lift the trophy on Wednesday.
Sevilla's domestic form has improved significantly since the appointment of coach Jose Luis Mendilibar in March and they eliminated Manchester United and Juventus in the last two rounds of the Europa League so a competitive contest is expected at the Puskas Arena.
As the betting suggests, there is not much to choose between resurgent Sevilla and a Roma side who produced a Mourinho masterclass to see off Bayer Leverkusen in the semi-finals.
Roma had one shot to Leverkusen's 23 in the goalless second leg in Germany, sealing a 1-0 aggregate victory, and they are capable of frustrating Sevilla and lifting the trophy in Budapest.
Sevilla's defence has been unsettled by injuries and suspensions and home advantage has been crucial to their run to the final.
Indeed, over the past two seasons they have lost four and drawn two of their six Europa League ties outside Spain and two of their three goals during that lean run were own goals from Manchester United defenders Tyrell Malacia and Harry Maguire.
Sevilla have to be respected given their record in this competition and their knockout victories over heavyweight opponents United and Juve but streetwise Roma are worth backing at Even-Money to edge the final on neutral territory.
Like Sevilla, Roma have been heavily reliant on their home form in this competition but they have conceded just three goals in eight knockout ties and held their nerve to beat Feyenoord 1-0 in last season's Conference League final.
The goals markets suggest a tight, low-scoring final is in prospect and that would come as no surprise given Roma's defensive display over two legs against Leverkusen in the semis.
There are talented attacking players in the Roma ranks, especially if Argentina ace Paulo Dybala is passed fit, but Mourinho is unlikely to take a gung-ho approach early on and a goalless first half may be on the cards.
Roma have not conceded a first-half goal in eight Europa League knockout games this season and their last five ties have all been 0-0 at the break.
Sevilla scored eight goals in their four matches against United and Juventus but five of them came in the 71st minute or later and the final could be a slow-burning encounter.
0-0 at the break at odds of 5/4 appeals to me.
With defences expected to dominate the final – Under 2.5 Goals in 90 minutes is 1/2 – it could take only one moment of magic to settle the contest and Roma's Lorenzo Pellegrini is a tempting price at to be the First Goalscorer.
The Italy international has scored four goals in this season's Europa League, having found the net five times in 10 starts in last term's triumphant Conference League campaign.
Roma's Lorenzo Pellegrini scored nine goals from midfield in Serie A last season and, while he has not been as prolific in 2022/23, he is finishing the campaign impressively.
Pellegrini has notched in two of his last five league starts, also racking up nine shots at goal in recent Serie A meetings with AC Milan and Champions League finalists Inter Milan, and he has converted four of Roma's nine successful penalties this season.
I like the look of him to open the scoring at .