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Donald Trump Odds: Trump 1/25 to be Republican candidate; 5/6 to be next president

Donald Trump is closing in on the Republican presidential nomination with voters in 15 states set to choose their candidate for president on Super Tuesday.

Politics Odds

Trump has been the runaway leader in the polls for several months now, and while he’s unlikely to secure the nomination until next week, it appears to be a matter of time before officially being confirmed as the Republican candidate.

Trump is 1/25 to be the Republican candidate, while Nikki Haley – who’s vowed to fight on after Super Tuesday – is 12/1 to be on the ballot.

The former president is polling higher than ever at around 77% to be the Republican candidate, and there don’t appear to be significant concerns over his eligibility to run despite ongoing court cases.

Despite being ruled ineligible to run for president over his involvement on the January 6th attack on the Capitol by Colorado as well as Maine and Illinois, the Supreme Court ruled that only Congress, and not states, can declare a candidate ineligible for office, giving Trump a clear run to the ballot.

The Democratic race is closer, although incumbent Joe Biden is still expected to secure the nomination at 4/11.

Interestingly, Michelle Obama is the 4/1 second favourite despite never actually declaring her intention to run. The former First Lady recently expressed her fears around the race and her price to be the Democratic candidate has steadily dropped ever since.

There are ongoing concerns around Biden’s suitability for office – the president will turn 82 years old weeks after the election, meaning he’d be 86 when leaving office if he won – while a recent poll found that 73% of all voters believe Biden to be too old to be an effective president, and 61% of Biden voters from 2020 also believing the president’s age would make him ineffective for a second term.

A combination of factors including voter apathy and the lack of a sufficiently prominent and popular Democratic candidate have led to Trump being the odds-on favourite at 5/6 to be the next president, with Biden 12/5.

What is Super Tuesday?

Super Tuesday is the day on which the most delegates vote for their presidential candidate. Voters in Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia will vote for their candidate, as well as the US territory of American Samoa, though the Democrats won’t hold a vote in Alaska.

It gives the strongest indicator of who will go on to be the presidential candidate for the Republican and Democrat parties.

How does Super Tuesday work?

Registered voters in the relevant states will go to the polls and vote for their desired candidate on Tuesday 5th March, giving the strongest indicator of who will be on the Republican and Democratic ballot for the election.

What’s the difference between a primary and a caucus?

A caucus is a private meeting organised by political parties, where voters split into groups depending on which candidate they support.

A primary is run by local and state governments, and voting happens by secret ballot. Some states hold closed ballots, which are only open to registered members of each party, and some hold open ballots, in which anyone can vote for a candidate.

While slightly different, they're the two ways states vote for the presidential candidate.

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