Nathan Aspinall v Michael van Gerwen: Free Tips, Prediction and Odds

The fourth and final quarter-final on Night 6 of the Premier League has plenty riding on it as third-placed Nathan Aspinall clashes with the man right behind him, Michael van Gerwen at the Motorpoint Arena in Nottingham.

Nathan Aspinall v Michael van Gerwen free betting tips and predictions

Nathan Aspinall to win - 6/5

Since 2019 Nathan Aspinall has only beaten Michael van Gerwen four times on TV - and all four successes have come in the Premier League.

The most recent of that quartet of wins was last month in Dublin when The Asp ran out an easy 6-3 winner to reach the final where he lost to Gerwyn Price.

Van Gerwen has still beaten Aspinall far more times than he has lost to the Englishman, but the outsider may well be worth backing in Nottingham.

Aspinall has reached the final in two of the Thursday night mini-leagues, also doing so last week in Brighton.

He is now on eight points, all collected over the last three weeks, which is one more than Van Gerwen, a four-time semi-finalist over the first five weeks but yet to make a final.

Last Thursday, The Green Machine lost 6-2 to Luke Littler in the semis with a 90 average, while Aspinall was hitting a 106.46 average beating Stephen Bunting 6-2, a 96.49 average taking care of Rob Cross 6-5 before running out of steam against The Nuke in the final, averaging 94.54 in a 6-3 loss.

Both men suffered first-hurdle falls at the Belgian Darts Open on Saturday, Aspinall averaging over 98 in a 6-5 loss to Ritchie Edhouse while Van Gerwen was again down on his numbers, posting sub-94 in a shock loss to Boris Krcmar.

Aspinall has to be feeling confident. Despite well-chronicled health issues he has reached the quarter-finals of this year's Masters and UK Open and will never lack determination - and that makes him a hard man to shake off.

Michael van Gerwen Under 2.5 180s - 10/11

The maximums have dried up for Van Gerwen in recent weeks and may well again in Nottingham.

Over the first two Thursdays he smashed in 16 180s in four matches, averaging four per game.

In the last three weeks, however, he has only celebrated six maximums in five matches and never more than two in a game.

He is one of the players most likely to head for the 19s if his first dart isn't sitting nicely in the treble 20 bed, so that makes him less prolific than others.

And he certainly looks a spot of value to again hit two or less in Nottingham.

Player Total 100+ Checkouts - Michael van Gerwen 0 - 11/10

First you have to be presented with a chance at a 100-plus checkout, second you have to hit it.

And while Van Gerwen has done that in five matches this season, he hasn't in the other four, including the 6-3 loss to Aspinall in Dublin.

It still feels likelier he doesn't hit one than does, especially over what could be a relatively short format and especially if we're tipping him to win five legs or fewer.

Read more darts betting tips and predictions on site.

Nathan Aspinall v Michael van Gerwen odds

Nathan Aspinall - 6/5
Michael van Gerwen - 4/6

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.