Vuelta a Espana: Prediction, Tips and Odds

Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel have all decided to skip the 2024 Vuelta a Espana and their absences has made for an open race headlined by three-time winner Primoz Roglic, who is chasing a fifth Grand Tour title.

The three-week Vuelta begins with a three-stage trip to Portugal before moving across the border to Spain and, as has been typical of the race in recent years, the organisers have made sure that this is a route for the climbers.

Roglic's three Vuelta wins came between 2019 and 2021 when he was a member of Jumbo-Visma, now Visma-Lease a Bike, but he returns as the leader of a strong Red Bull–Bora–Hansgrohe team and is the 2/1 favourite to win the GC.

However, the odds suggest he will face stiff competition from his former team-mate and defending champion Sepp Kuss, UAE Team Emirates duo Adam Yates and Joao Almeida and home hopeful Enric Mas.

Vuelta a Espana betting tips and predictions

Adam Yates to win Vuelta a Espana - 13/2

Roglic is the one to beat on his best form but, at 34 years of age, there is some debate as to how much the Slovene has left in the tank and he's become accustomed to horrible luck in Grand Tours in recent years.

He has failed to finish four of the last seven which he's started.

Bora–Hansgrohe have sent a strong team in support of their leader with Dani Martinez, Aleksandr Vlasov and Florian Lipowitz all joining Roglic on the start line.

However, the same is true of UAE, who will expect Yates and Almeida to be involved at the business end in Madrid in three weeks' time.

There are nine summit finishes in the Vuelta including Stage 20, which features seven categorised climbs and finishes on Picon Blanco, while the race as a whole represents a fearsome prospect for even the most adept of climbers.

However, if anyone is equipped to handle the route and claim the famous red jersey, it could be Yates, who won the Tour de Suisse in June then performed a valuable role as right-hand man to Pogacar at Le Tour - finishing sixth on general classification (GC) despite playing a supporting role.

The Bury man, whose twin brother Simon won this race in 2018, has had enough time to recover from his exploits in France and there is no denying that this route is ideal for him to land a long overdue wait for a GC title of his own.

Richard Carapaz to win Vuelta a Espana and each-way - 14/1

For an each-way alternative in the GC market, consider the claims of Richard Carapaz, who does not have the team strength of Roglic or the UAE duo, but who remains one of the most talented climbers in the pro peloton when he's on top form.

Carapaz claimed the King of the Mountains title and a Stage 17 win at the Tour de France, but his EF Education-EasyPost team have suggested that the 2019 Giro winner will be taking aim at the GC in Spain.

Carapaz finished second behind Roglic in the 2020 Vuelta and was one of the stars of the race in 2022, winning the mountains classification and claiming three stage victories. He could be set for GC glory.

Valentin Paret-Peintre to win King of the Mountains - 28/1

Valentin Paret-Peintre is one of several exciting young climbers in the Vuelta field and the Frenchman looks in with a real chance of claiming the King of the Mountains title at a big price.

Paret-Peintre is no stranger to tough tests - he finished fourth in the Tour of the Alps and won a stage at the Giro earlier in the season - and his Decathlon-AG2R La Mondiale team should afford him carte blanche to get involved in breakaways.

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Vuelta a Espana odds

Primoz Roglic - 2/1
Sepp Kuss - 11/2
Adam Yates - 13/2
Joao Almeida - 13/2
Enric Mas Nicolau - 7/1

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.