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Tour de France: Prediction, Tips and Odds

The 111th edition of the Tour de France begins in the picturesque Italian city of Florence on Saturday with Tadej Pogacar odds-on to complete a rare double in France this summer.

Pogacar, who won the Tour in 2020 and 2021, is aiming to become the first man since Italy's Marco Pantani in 1998 to win the Tour and Giro d'Italia in the same year after routing his rivals in that race in May.

Standing in his way is great foe and two-time defending champion Jonas Vingegaard but it remains to be seen what sort of shape the Dane is in following a horror crash at April's Tour of the Basque Country.

Tour de France

Tour de France betting tips and predictions

Tadej Pogar-Adam Yates straight forecast - 12/1

The latest instalment in the burgeoning rivalry of Pogacar and Vingegaard was shaping up to be one for the ages in the spring.

At the time, Pogacar was making hay in one-day races and the Volta a Catalunya while Vingegaard produced a dominant display at Tirreno-Adriatico.

All that changed, though, when Vingegaard suffered a punctured lung and fractured ribs in a heavy crash in the Basque Country in April and, understandably, he hasn't raced since.

It's therefore extremely difficult to know what sort of form he is in and Pogacar is a worthy favourite to make it 3-2 in their yellow jersey battle with victory in France this summer.

Pogacar took control of the leader's jersey at the Giro on only stage two and continued to stretch his advantage all the way to Rome. And it's not inconceivable that he will do the same at the Tour this year.

A tougher-than-usual first week gives him the perfect platform from which to land multiple early blows on Vingegaard, who won't be afforded any time to find his fitness by Pogacar and his UAE Emirates team.

At 1/2, there isn't a huge amount of juice in Pogacar's price to win outright and finding someone to follow him home isn't easy.

Like Vingegaard, Remco Evenepoel is still working his way back from injuries sustained in the crash at the Tour of the Basque Country while luck has never been on the side of Primoz Roglic, winner of the recent Criterium du Dauphine, at the Tour.

Ineos's main hope Carlos Rodriguez is improving all the time but a podium finish may be beyond him at present, so it could pay to side with Adam Yates completing a 1-2 on the podium for UAE Emirates.

A former winner of the white jersey for best young rider at the Tour in 2016, Yates's move to UAE from Ineos before the 2023 season appears to have given him a renewed sense of purpose.

Yates was third at last year's Tour despite being Pogacar's primary support act in the mountains and actually claimed the first yellow jersey of the race with victory in Bilbao on stage one.

The 31-year-old was exceptional at the recent Tour de Suisse, winning two stages to claim the overall, points and mountains classifications.

Pogacar is undoubtedly UAE Emirates' number one but Yates is a great foil for the Slovene and could better last year's showing to finish second behind his team-mate 12 months on.

Richard Carapaz to win King of the Mountains - 8/1

The days of Richard Carapaz challenging for overall wins at Grand Tours are probably over but the Ecuadorian should be in the hunt for stage honours in the mountains.

That could lead him to be in the shake-up for the iconic polka dot jersey awarded to the king of the mountains.

It can be a difficult classification to predict as it can depend on how many stages result in breakaways being able to mop up enough points to keep the overall contenders at bay, but Carapaz, who was second in the KOM standings in 2020 and sixth in 2021, has enough climbing ability to fight for the points when required.

Matteo Jorgenson top-10 finish - 5/6

American Matteo Jorgenson has improved at a rate of knots since joining Visma-Lease a Bike at the start of the season and he can confirm his potential with a strong showing in France this summer.

Jorgenson won the general classification at Paris-Nice in the spring, beating the likes of Remco Evenepoel and Egan Bernal, and he then came second to Primoz Roglic at June's Criterium du Dauphine.

If Jorgenson's team-mate Jonas Vingegaard does struggle with fitness as could certainly be the case, Visma could turn their attention to helping the American achieve as high a finish on general classification as possible.

Read more Tour de France betting tips and predictions on site

Tour de France odds

Tadej Pogacar


Jonas Vingegaard


Primoz Roglic


Remco Evenepoel


Carlos Rodriguez


View the full market and more odds for the Tour de France on site.

Read Tour de France 2024: When, where and how to watch and more on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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