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Tour de France Prediction and Tips

The 113th Tour de France begins in Barcelona on Saturday and once again world champion and four-time yellow-jersey winner Tadej Pogacar is the man everyone has to beat.

In a year's time the peloton of the Tour de France will set off from Edinburgh before taking in the Lake District, Lancashire and Wales. 

However, the 113th edition of cycling's biggest and most famous race takes place closer to its ancestral home just across the border in Barcelona and there is a very familiar look to the cast of leading contenders set to do battle for the yellow jersey.

Tour de France Tips and Predictions

Tour de France Format

Route and Stages for 2026

Tour de France Favourites

Tour de France key stats

Tour de France Outright Prediction

Dark Horses to Watch

Expert Tip

Who Wins the Tour de France?

Tour de France Outright

Tour de France Tips and Predictions

Outright Prediction: Tadej Pogacar-Jonas Vingegaard straight forecast (8/13)
Dark Horse Tip:
Juan Ayuso top-three finish (5/1)
Expert Tip:
Michael Storer to win King of the Mountains (22/1)

Tour de France Format

The Tour de France is contested over three weeks in July and stands as the greatest race in cycling. 

The Tour is played out over 21 stages over flat, hilly and mountainous terrain and the rider with the fastest cumulative time is the winner of the general classification, or overall standings.

The leader of the general classification is signified by the iconic yellow jersey, but there are other prizes to be won on the road. 

Sprinters will have their eyes on the green jersey, which is awarded to the winner of the points classification.

Each stage has a set number of points on offer at the finish line based on its category - flat stages have the most points on offer - and there are also points to be won at intermediate sprint points along each day's route. 

Similarly, mountain points are available at the top of every categorised climb on the route, giving climbers the opportunity to go for the King of the Mountains award, the polka dot jersey.

Lastly, the best riders under the age of 25 battle it out for the white jersey. This is determined by their standing on the general classification.

Routes and Stages for 2026

The 113th Tour de France begins with a team time trial in Barcelona on Saturday, July 4th and will end on the cobbles of Paris's Champs-Elysees on Sunday, July 26th.

  • Stage 1 Barcelona to Barcelona (19.7km) - Team time trial

  • Stage 2 Tarragona to Barcelona (178km) - Hilly

  • Stage 3 Granollers to Les Angles (196km) - Mountain

  • Stage 4 Carcassonne to Foix (182km) - Hilly

  • Stage 5 Lannemezan to Pau (158km) - Flat

  • Stage 6 Pau to Gavarnie-Gedre (186km) - Mountain

  • Stage 7 Hagetmau to Bordeaux (175km) - Flat

  • Stage 8 Periguex to Bergerac (182km) - Flat

  • Stage 9 Malemort to Ussel (185km) - Hilly

  • Stage 10 Aurillac to Le Lioran (167km) - Mountain

  • Stage 11 Vichy to Nevers (161km) - Flat

  • Stage 12 Circuit de Nevers Magny-Cours to Chalon-sur-Saone (181km) - Flat

  • Stage 13 Dole to Belfort (205km) - Hilly

  • Stage 14 Mulhouse to Le Markstein Fellering (155km) - Mountain

  • Stage 15 Champagnole to Plateau de Solaison (184km) - Mountain

  • Stage 16 Evian-les-Bains to Thonon-les-Bains (26km) - Individual time trial

  • Stage 17 Chambery to Voiron (175km) - Flat

  • Stage 18 Voiron to Orcieres-Merlette (185km) - Mountain

  • Stage 19 Gap to Alpe d'Huez (128km) - Mountain

  • Stage 20 Le Bourg-d'Oisans to Alpe d'Huez (171km) - Mountain

  • Stage 21 Thoiry to Paris Champs-Elysees (130km) - Flat

Tour de France Favourites

The betting suggests that the Tour de France will once again be the preserve of Tadej Pogacar at 2/9 and Jonas Vingegaard at 10/3 and it is difficult to quibble with that stance.

Pogacar's dominance of the sport is only getting stronger, while Vingegaard is the only man to have beaten the superstar Slovene at a Grand Tour since his three-week debut at the 2019 Vuelta as a 20-year-old.

The pair have won the last six Tour titles between them - Pogacar has four and Vingegaard two - and no other rider has finished in front of them at the sport's biggest stage races since their Grand Tour debuts.

Tour de France key stats

  • Tadej Pogacar has finished first on 11 of the 16 racedays he has entered in 2026, an ominous statistic given his dominance of the sport in recent years

  • Pogacar and great rival Jonas Vingegaard have filled the first two steps on the podium in each of the last five Tours, and they have not finished lower than second at a Grand Tour since 2020

  • There have been no more than four different riders to wear the yellow jersey in each of the last five Tours

  • There has not been a repeat winner of the green jersey since 2019, when Peter Sagan won the points classification for the seventh and final time

Tour de France Outright Prediction

It is hardly original, but there looks no reason why the 113th Tour de France will not play out in the same manner as the last five, with Pogacar and Vingegaard taking the top two steps on the podium.

Pogacar had almost four and a half minutes on the Dane last year, down from over six minutes in 2024, but that Vingegaard was the only man within nine minutes of the Slovenian winner on both occasions tells you all you need to know about the pair's dominance.

Ominously, Pogacar reckons he is faster and stronger than ever, a belief cemented by the biggest winning margin at the Tour de Suisse in approaching seven decades.

Pogacar's insatiable appetite for success shows no sign of waning and he has the filip of becoming the fifth man to win five yellow jerseys if he triumphs again this year.

Dark Horses to Watch

France have waited more than 40 years for a home winner of the Tour and they might just have unearthed a new man to pin their hopes on.

Paul Seixas has made waves on the World Tour this year, showing that he might just have the talent to challenge Pogacar and Vingegaard's dominance in the coming years.

The 19-year-old is 14/1 in the GC Classification market, but he is not the only youngster coming through the ranks.

Pogacar's Mexican team-mate Isaac del Toro, 22, almost won the Giro d'Italia last year, when some questionable team tactics saw him relinquish the lead on the penultimate stage.

Del Toro, 18/1 in the GC Classification market, entered that race in support of Spaniard Juan Ayuso, who has since left UAE Team Emirates in acrimonious circumstances.

Ayuso (33/1) moved to Lidl-Trek over the winter and won February's Tour of Algarve.

He was last seen finishing third to Del Toro at the Tour Auvergne - Rhone-Alpes, where he was second to the Mexican on the two mountain stages.

Third last year, Florian Lipowitz will share leadership duties with former world champion Remco Evenepoel at Red Bull Bora-Hansgrohe.

Expert Tip

Australian climber Michael Storer won't be challenging for the yellow jersey, but at 22/1, he could be eyeing up the polka dots awarded to the King of the Mountains.

Storer finished seventh at the Giro in May - his third top-ten at the race in a row - and will be on stage-hunting duties in France this summer.

The mountains classification is difficult to weigh up as it can often be won as a by-product of winning overall, but Storer is in decent shape judged by his Giro exertions and should be a feature in breakaways on mountainous stages.

Who Wins the Tour de France?

On all known form, there is only one winner of the 2026 Tour de France: Tadej Pogacar.

The Slovene has been head and shoulders above the rest of the field for almost three seasons now and there is little doubt that he wants to be known as the greatest rider in history.

Read more cycling betting tips and predictions on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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