New Zealand v England first Test: Prediction, Tips and Odds

England's three-match Test series in New Zealand starts this week and Racing Post's James Milton gives his top tips for Wednesday's first Test in Christchurch.

New Zealand v England betting tips and predictions

New Zealand to win @ 10/11

England captain Ben Stokes was born in Christchurch and their coach Brendon McCullum is a former New Zealand skipper, but the pair may not enjoy a happy homecoming in Wednesday's first Test.

The Three Lions suffered a 2-1 series defeat in Pakistan in October, losing the final two Tests on viciously spinning wickets after Joe Root (262) and Harry Brook (317) had powered them to a remarkable victory in the opening game.

Stokes and McCullum will be preparing their side for a very different challenge in New Zealand, where the hosts' fast bowlers could cause serious problems for a reshuffled England batting line-up.

Wicketkeeper Jamie Smith, one of the stars of this summer's home series against the West Indies and Sri Lanka, is on paternity leave, while his understudy Jordan Cox has been ruled out due to a fractured thumb.

Ollie Pope, who has been short of runs at Test level, will keep wicket and bat at number six, with debutant Jacob Bethell coming in at number three.

The Warwickshire left-hander is a gifted white-ball talent, snapped up by Royal Challengers Bengaluru at last weekend's IPL auction.

However, he has had limited experience in red-ball cricket and faces a baptism of fire against a Black Caps side buoyed by their stunning 3-0 series win in India.

Kane Williamson, arguably New Zealand's greatest ever batter, missed the India triumph due to injury, but is available to face England and the hosts look settled and well balanced and can take a 1-0 lead in the series.

Matt Henry - player of the match @ 14/1

Veteran seamer Tim Southee is set to retire from Test cricket at the end of this series, having made his Black Caps debut against England back in March 2008.

The towering Will O'Rourke has made a fine start to his Test career, but Matt Henry could pose the biggest threat to England's batters at the Hagley Oval.

Henry was player of the series in New Zealand's 2-0 home defeat to Australia in March, when he took 17 wickets, including 7-67 in the first innings in Christchurch.

He followed up with 5-15 in the first innings of the series in India and has claimed 30 wickets in his last four Test appearances at the Hagley Oval.

The 32-year-old is also a handy lower-order hitter, contributing 42, 14, 29 and 16 in four innings against Australia this year. 

Three of Henry's four Test half-centuries have been scored in Christchurch, including a career-best 72 against Sri Lanka in 2023, and he is an eye-catching price to be named player of the match.

Tom Latham over 67.5 performance points @ 5/6

Home skipper Tom Latham is a reliable performer at the top of the order and he is worth backing to frustrate England pacemen Gus Atkinson, Brydon Carse and Chris Woakes.

Left-hander Latham had a lean series in India, although he scored a vital 86 in the second innings of the second Test in Pune, but he can clear a performance-points line of 67.5 against England.

He is the leading runscorer in Tests at the Hagley Oval, where he made 176 against Sri Lanka in 2018 and 252 against Bangladesh in 2022.

Latham's performance in March's Christchurch Test against Australia made up at 121, thanks to one catch and scores of 38 and 73, and he has taken 20 catches - worth 10 points each in this market - in 13 Tests against England.

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New Zealand v England odds

New Zealand - 10/11
Draw - 11/1
England - 5/4

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.