Charles Schwab Challenge: Predictions, tips and odds

The PGA TOUR returns with the Charles Schwab Challenge, and Mike Glasscott has seven picks to follow at Colonial Country Club.

Charles Schwab Challenge tips

To Win: Tony Finau (30/1)
Top 10: Jordan Spieth (23/10), Collin Morikawa (29/20), Lee Hodges (13/2)
Top 20: Alex Smalley (5/1), Mark Hubbard (13/5), Adam Schenk (11/4), Ryan Palmer (9/1)

Colonial Country Club course guide

Located in Fort Worth, Texas, the club opened in 1936. The John Bredemus-Perry Maxwell design found national acclaim by hosting the first U.S. Open in the South in 1941. The course also hosted the 1975 Tournament Players Championship and the 1991 Women’s U.S. Open.

The 2024 tournament will play to Par-70 and tips out at 7,289 yards, 80 additional paces than the 2023 edition. Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner renovated the entire property after the conclusion of play last May, above and below the soil, as part of a $20 million renovation.

The list of changes is extensive. The greens all have new 007XL Bentgrass, while the rest of the property received new TifTuf Bermuda sod (tees, fairways, rough, and approaches).

Holes were moved back while others were lowered, shifted, or both. Par-3 holes 8 and 13 had more dramatic changes and will present as they did in the 1940s.

Hogan’s Alley requires precision over power. Shaping the ball both ways off the tee and finding greens in regulation provide a solid foundation for contenders.

For the second week in a row, greens average just 5,000 square feet and are Bentgrass. The Stimpmeter will run between 12 and 13 feet. Players new to the event will not notice the changes, leveling the playing field to a degree.

The Par-3 holes all stretch 194 yards or deeper, while the Par-5 holes, listed at 581 and 639 yards respectively, provide a tough scoring duo.

Hazards include 64 bunkers and four water penalty areas in play across six holes.

In 2023, the course ranked as the toughest, non-major Par-70 layout on TOUR.

The course record, 61, was last set by Kevin Na in 2018.

Zach Johnson, the only two-time winner in the field, owns the tournament scoring record (-21, 259 in 2010).

Charles Schwab Challenge preview

The 78th edition is the longest-serving, non-major championship event on the PGA TOUR.

The nickname Hogan’s Alley was contrived after native Texan and Fort Worth resident Ben Hogan won five times, including the inaugural event, and cashed 15 times in the top 10.

The invitational field of 132 players includes 21 of the top 50 in the Official World Golf rankings, including No. 1 Scottie Scheffler.

Exactly half of the field, 66 players, took part in the second major of the season, the PGA Championship, last week at Valhalla.

The top 65 and ties after two rounds will play the final 36 holes. The only time the cut has been under par in the last decade was 2-under-par for the 2020 edition in June.

Emiliano Grillo, the 2023 winner, joined 2014 winner Adam Scott to become just the second international winner in 10 years.

No player has won this event more than twice this century.

Sergio Garcia is the last player to win on debut (2001). He joins Keith Clearwater (1987) as the only player to win on debut since 1967.

Ian Baker-Finch was the last player to go wire-to-wire (1989).

The winner will take home 500 FedExCup points plus $1.638 million from the $9.1 million purse.

Top of the Board  

Scottie Scheffler (11/4): Last week, he was arrested, played a round without his regular caddie, Ted Scott, and still cashed T8. This week, he is home with his newly expanded family, sleeping in his bed, and presumably will not be going to jail. Only three players have beaten him in the last two events at Colonial.

Collin Morikawa (12/1): The disappointment of not being in the fight Sunday at Valhalla from the final group should provide the fuel this week. Cashing T4, he picked up his third top-10 result from his last four events. After the renovations to multiple greens and holes, I am leaning on the ball-strikers to lead the way.

Max Homa (22/1): I can’t get it out of my head that his worst results of the season are the smallest greens on TOUR. Cashing T9 last year, his best result from five visits has me conflicted.

Jordan Spieth (22/1): Playing across town from his Dallas home, investors are paying for his spectacular course form. The 2016 winner has cashed T14 or better in nine of 10 weekends. Cashing T10 at Valero the week before the Masters was the last time he was relevant on Sunday. If the switch is going to flip, this is the week.

Tony Finau (30/1): The man from Utah likes his golf in Texas. Missing the cut last year broke a seven-year run of T34 or better. Finishing second in 2019 and T4 in 2022, it’s obvious the layout fits his eye. A winner in Houston two years ago, his best finish of the season is T2 at Memorial Park.

Harris English (30/1): Pre-renovation, he would have had more of my interest. Super on and around the greens, he struggled last week at Valhalla tee-to-green. In six weekends, he’s never cashed out worse than T30.

Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action:

Aaron Rai (55/1): Posting T7 in Houston and T4 at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, the Englishman thrives on approach (10th).

Thomas Detry (55/1): Coming off T4 at the PGA Championship, all nine of his paydays this season are T28 or better, minus THE PLAYERS.

Mark Hubbard (75/1): Making his 15th start of the season, he has played all 14 weekends previously. Top 50 in approach. Top 50 in putting. Never missed the cut in five tries and was T9 last year.

Lee Hodges (80/1): His T12 result at the PGA Championship featured T9 Fairways and T8 GIR. Heater.

Adam Schenk (80/1): Nearly slipped into the plaid jacket here last year before losing in a playoff. Finished T13 across town in Dallas three weeks ago, so hoping to rekindle similar good vibes now that he’s back in the Lone Star State.

Robert MacIntyre (110/1): Paired with Detry at Zurich, the duo posted T8 for the week. The Scotsman shot 68-69 and missed the cut at TPC Craig Ranch before rattling off T13 at Myrtle Beach and T8 at the PGA Championship.

Sam Stevens (125/1): The last time out, he posted T10 at WFC and cashed T29 on debut here last year.

Alex Smalley (200/1): Missing the cut in a major will not erase T20, T13, and T6 in his previous three on TOUR.

Jorge Campillo (200/1): Quietly sits 32nd in SG: Tee to Green and has cashed T4, T24, and T18 in his last three starts. Vamos!

Ryan Palmer (500/1): Making his 21st start, the member at CCC is looking for his first top 10 since 2019. Start with a Top-40 ticket and work your way up!