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Canelo Alvarez vs Gennady Golovkin III: Rob Tebbutt's Betting Tips

iD Boxing's insider Rob Tebbutt gives bet365 an exclusive insight as to where the value may be found on this weekend's hotly-anticipated Canelo vs Golovkin III fight card.

Click here to view further Canelo vs Golovkin III content.


Canelo Alvarez vs Gennady Golovkin
(WBA (Super), WBC, IBF, WBO and The Ring super middleweight titles bout)

Let’s start with the main event; Canelo Alvarez vs ‘GGG’ Gennady Golovkin…

I have been thinking about this and with Canelo, he has gained a reputation for wearing down opponents and stopping them in the second half of fights. Against Caleb Plant he stopped him in round 11, against Billy Joe Saunders he won it in round eight – he grinds people down in the second half of fights and I think that will be the case in the early hours of Sunday morning too.

Look, Gennady Golovkin has a good jab, he is a solid technician and I think he will stay in the fight early, but Canelo will take two or three rounds to assess everything and then start getting to work. He is a murderous body-puncher I expect him to soften him up in the middle rounds and put him away in the second half of the fight.

In the early stages of Golovkin’s fight with Ryota Murata, I don’t think he was really on the ball, but part of that can be attributed to ring-rust, and he sort of saw himself into the fight in the middle rounds. I expect an improved performance from him this time around, although, as I say, I believe Canelo will have too much for him.

Given what I have said, my value bet has to be Canelo in Rounds 7 - 12 in the ‘Round Group Betting (4)’ market, priced at 5/2. When you consider in recent times the number of fighters he has hurt in the second half of fights, and you add to that Golovkin’s age, the inactivity and the added weight, it all points towards a stoppage late on.

If you’re a long odds player then Golovkin ‘By Decision or Technical Decision’ at 15/2 is a decent enough price. I don’t expect him to win this, but this is a much closer fight in the ring than the odds suggest. Golovkin is an underrated boxer, an Olympic silver medallist and a world-class amateur, he was never put down as an amateur and he’s never been put down as a professional. There will be people who fancy him.

Tebbutt’s Tip: Canelo in Rounds 7 - 12 (5/2)

Jesse Rodriguez vs Israel Gonzalez
(WBC super-flyweight title bout)

Jesse ‘Bam’ Rodriguez is arguably the best fighter in the world at below featherweight at the minute. Israel Gonzalez has mixed it at the top level for years, although he’s never been in with anybody as good as ‘Bam’ Rodriguez. I think he’s going to get hit so clean and so often that he will get stopped.

I’d be looking at Rodriguez in Rounds 1 - 6 at 9/4! Rodriguez is so heavy handed and starts so fast that I can see him really demolishing his opponent. Even narrowing it down to Rounds 1 - 4 at 11/2 represents great value because, for me, Rodriguez gets Gonzalez out of there early doors.

Tebbutt’s Tip: Rodriguez in Rounds 1 - 6 (9/4)

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Ali Akhmedov vs Gabriel Rosado
(IBF North American super-middleweight title bout)

Everyone who knows Gabe Rosado is aware of the fact that he is an absolute warrior! He’s been in there with pretty much everybody and he’s always shown tremendous durability, however, everybody has their time. When you’ve had the amount of hard fights he’s had, the last two in particular, it’s only a matter of time until all of those, together with the hard shots, start catching up with you.

Ali Akhmedov is a very heavy-handed fighter who, at one point, was supposed to be the heir apparent to Gennady Golovkin. He is talented, and I only see this fight ending in one way which is a really painful night for Rosado.

I would pick Akhmedov by stoppage here at 10/11, which is good value because I believe Rosado is at the point in his career where he’s there to be taken out. He is a tough fighter, very tough, and he will be determined to stick around for as long as possible, so I also like the look of Akhmedov in Rounds 7 - 8 at 5/1 or Rounds 9 - 10 at slightly longer odds of 6/1.

Tebbutt’s Tip: Akhmedov by KO, TKO or Disqualification (10/11)

Austin Williams vs Kieron Conway
(WBA International middleweight title bout)

Finally, let’s take a look at this one. Austin ‘Ammo’ Williams against Kieron Conway – somebody who, for me, is vastly underrated. Whilst he is stepping up to the 160lb division he is still a really big middleweight. That said, the value here is Williams 'By Decision or Technical Decision' at 6/4. It has come in a little bit from what I first spotted it at, but it still represents good value.

Williams knocked out Chordale Booker in his last fight, but Conway is a tough, tough man and certainly represents a real step up for Williams. He’s big in the weight and he boxes in a way that’s quite negative and difficult to pin down.

I don’t really see Conway coming close to winning the fight, but I can certainly see him being competitive in a lot of the rounds and going the distance.

Tebbutt’s Tip: Williams by Decision or Technical Decision (6/4)

The Wildcard: Tebbutt’s Treble

If you are looking for an accumulator, then why not go for three stoppages!

I fancy Canelo, Rodriguez and Akhmedov all to prevail inside the distance. At the time of writing, you can get just over 5/1 for that treble to land, which has real appeal!

Canelo by KO, TKO or Disqualification (6/4)
Rodriguez by KO, TKO or Disqualification (1/3)
Akhmedov by KO, TKO or Disqualification (10/11)

5.36/1

(Odds displayed were correct at the time of writing and are subject to change.)

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