bet365's trading professional Ian Vickers looks ahead to the forthcoming trilogy bout and tells us why the fight likely won't go the distance.
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bet365’s ‘boxing compiler’ Ian Vickers believes the smart money has to be on a Canelo Alvarez stoppage (8/5) against old foe Gennady Golovkin in Las Vegas this weekend.
The two pound-for-pound greats are set to share a ring for the third, and likely final, time in the early hours of Sunday morning, with Canelo bidding to maintain his unbeaten streak against the Kazakhstani and further cement his legacy at super-middleweight level.
The first two fights of the trilogy in Sin City went the distance, with a controversial draw in 2017 being followed up by a narrow and equally as contentious split-decision victory for Canelo just 12 months later.
However, whilst many in the sport expect this weekend’s bout to follow suit and go the full distance, Vickers doesn’t see it that way, admitting he struggles to foresee anything other than a late Canelo knockout.
“The more I’ve looked at this fight and the more I’ve thought about it, I actually fancy Canelo to stop Golovkin,” he told us in the build-up to this weekend’s headline event.
“I recently re-watched Golovkin’s last fight against Ryota Murata in Japan and he looked slow and cumbersome, and Murata was absolutely battering him for the first five rounds, until, I think, the pressure and realisation of what was going on started to get to him.
“I know that Canelo is coming into this fight on the back of a defeat, but he has every excuse under the sun for that defeat, stepping up to light-heavyweight against probably the number one man in the division in Dmitry Bivol.
“For me, Canelo stops Golovkin this weekend any time after rounds six or seven – I just honestly struggle to foresee any other outcome.
“The age factor comes into it too, because in boxing when a fighter hits 40, like Golovkin has done, they generally start to get protected by the referee – it seems to be that magic number.
“Given his age, I believe that if at any point Canelo has him in trouble then the referee might step in and save him. In my opinion, Canelo, doesn’t need a clean knockout to end this fight inside the distance.”
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bet365's trading professional Ian Vickers looks ahead to the forthcoming trilogy bout and tells us why the fight likely won't go the distance.
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At the time of writing the fight is priced at 8/13 to go to the judges’ scorecards, significantly shorter than the 6/5 on offer for the bout to end by method of ‘KO, TKO or Disqualification’ for either fighter.
“The Fight to go the distance is available at 8/13 with us and Canelo by stoppage is now 6/4, but personally I make the stoppage favourite over the decision,” Vickers added.
“Golovkin can’t start this fight the way he started against Murata, if he does Canelo will knock him out without a doubt.
“The first couple of fights were toe-to-toe wars, but Golovkin has barely fought since then, whereas Canelo has been very active, fighting the best of Britain in Callum Smith and Billy Joe Saunders amongst other top fighters.
“Four years is a long time in boxing, especially at that age around 40 when the reflexes start to go.
“I saw plenty of warning signs, as I said earlier, in Golovkin’s fight with Murata, so for me, Canelo ends this fight before the final bell.”
Canelo is the heavy bet365 favourite to reign supreme at the T-Mobile Arena this weekend, 1/6 to win the fight by any means. Golovkin meanwhile, is undoubtedly the underdog, priced at 7/2.
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Odds displayed were correct at the time of writing and are subject to change.
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