Canadian Federal Election Odds: Liberals narrow favourites

We look at the odds for the Canadian Federal Election ahead of the 2025 vote.

(Odds will display when the market is available)

New Liberal leader Mark Carney has triggered a federal election, with voters set to head to the polls on 28th April.

The recent polling numbers have shown a remarkable turnaround for the Liberal Party, who looked set for a landslide defeat under Justin Trudeau.

As recently as the start of 2025, the Conservative Party had a lead of around 25 points over the Liberal Party, but that lead has been swiftly wiped out with the Liberals now leading in most polls.

The impact of Donald Trump's second term, where he's made repeated remarks about wanting Canada to become the 51st state, and the resignation of the more left-wing Trudeau have undoubtedly had a significant impact, with former governor of the Bank of England Carney expected to bring the party more to the centre.

Carney has announced the removal of the unpopular carbon tax, and with Trudeau stepping down, it has removed the two most potent attack points for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, though the reaction from former prime minster Trudeau to the Trump-led trade war did spark a jump in popularity.

Liam Williams

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