Joseph Parker v Martin Bakole: Prediction, Tips & Odds

Ahead of a mouthwatering heavyweight showdown between Joseph Parker and Martin Bakole in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, bet365's Rob Tebbutt provides his best betting tips.

Joseph Parker v Martin Bakole Tips

Fight Not To Go The Distance @ 4/9
Joseph Parker To Get Knocked Down & Win @ 9/1

Joseph Parker and Martin Bakole - not Daniel Dubois - will now face each other on Saturday night in Riyadh, after a dramatic fight week withdrawal from Dubois saw the powers-that-be scrambling for an eleventh-hour replacement.  

While fans were understandably disappointed to hear news of Dubois’ pull-out (reportedly due to a virus), Saudi power-broker Turki Alalshikh moved quickly to find an extremely credible - and dangerous - replacement in Bakole, who jets in to take on Parker at just two days' notice.  

The big question here is what shape is Bakole in? He was slated to face Efe Ajagba in May - but that fight is some three-months away and recent photos on Bakole’s social media show the Congolese puncher looking in less-than-stellar physical condition.

How will he fare if a bout against a fully-fit and prepared Parker goes past six rounds?  

Even at his best, Bakole isn’t the type of fighter who will turn up with chiselled abdominal muscles, but if he’s 300lbs+, will he risk going for broke early on?

The lack of notice and subsequent conditioning of Bakole is the big red flag in this fight. If Bakole had a 12-week camp, I would make him a reasonable favourite over Parker.  

Conventional wisdom dictates the conditioned, more experienced and very much in-form Joseph Parker is a rightful favourite here. Though the last-minute change of opponent is far from ideal, Parker wasn’t sat at home a couple of days ago, nor has he been on a six-and-a-half hour flight less than two days before the fight of his life.  

On the flip-side, Bakole weighed in at just under 300lbs against Carlos Takam in October 2023 and looked terrific as he took the Cameroonian veteran apart inside four rounds.

Even at his heaviest, Bakole puts his shots together beautifully for such a big man and if he has a good five or six rounds in the tank, it could be enough…  

This is a fight to play with caution. While the ‘smart’ play is Parker I feel he is going to have to weather an early Bakole storm.

The New Zealander was able to pull himself to his feet in his wins over Derek Chisora and, last time out, Zhilei Zhang, so Parker to win after being knocked down represents good value bet at 9/1.

Make no mistake, Martin Bakole could very well pull this off. I think, in the condition he appears to be in, he has six rounds to get the job done — but he has the punching power and variety to do so.

It is difficult to ignore the nagging feeling I have that Bakole is simply the better fighter and at odds-on just to win, he could be the man to back.

However, it is impossible to ignore the late notice call-up and the fact Bakole is flying in the day before the fight is due to take place.

Joseph Parker v Martin Bakole Odds

(*Odds will display when markets are available).

*All odds correct at the time of publishing and subject to change