When can Birmingham City win the League One title?

Jaquob Crooke Updated: 15 Mar 25 08:09

Entering the 2024/25 League One campaign with immense expectation, Birmingham City have lived up to the billing as favourites and are currently on course to break the third tier points record.

A 2-1 success over Stevenage on Tuesday saw Chris Davies' men extend their advantage at the summit to 14 points over their nearest challengers Wycombe Wanderers, while the Blues also possess a game in hand on promotion contenders Wrexham who currently occupy third.

Birmingham are now priced at 1/250 to claim top honours in League One and given their supremacy, the battle for the League One title is all but a foregone conclusion.

Birmingham faced significant scrutiny at the beginning of the season following a lavish spending spree which saw them obliterate the League One transfer record for Jay Stansfield, but the club's investment has paid dividends with Davies orchestrating a remarkable charge back to the Championship.

The question on the lips of many Bluenoses is when their side will be crowned champions, and with an EFL Trophy final to look forward to in April - a game in which they are 2/7 favourites to prevail over Peterborough United - the next few weeks promise to be a memorable period for the second city outfit.

Barring a catastrophic implosion, we've analysed the numbers to find out the earliest date Birmingham can win the title.

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Birmingham City projections

When can Birmingham City win promotion from League One?

Birmingham are currently averaging 2.43 points per match in the third tier having accrued 82 points from 35 matches.

Their closest challengers Wycombe are averaging 1.94ppg, whilst Wrexham's figure declined to 1.89ppg following their defeat to Reading. Wycombe and Wrexham are to clash on 15th March, with the result of that fixture an outlier in the data.

Based off current projections, Birmingham will be 16 points ahead of Wycombe and 18 points clear of Wrexham after 40 matches. That means in Birmingham's 41st match, which is currently scheduled to be against Peterborough at London Road on 8th April, the Blues can achieve promotion.

It's worth noting that points projections fail to take into account the calibre of opposition and home advantage in the remaining fixtures. Eight of Birmingham's remaining 11 matches are against sides in the bottom half of the table, so confirmation of their promotion may be even sooner.

When can Birmingham City win the League One title?

Birmingham are six wins away from the League One title irrespective of their rivals’ results.

There is every chance that, given Wycombe and Wrexham's close proximity in terms of points, Birmingham can win the League One title on the same day that they win promotion.

If not, then Davies' outfit are projected to be 16 points clear of Wycombe with five matches of the campaign remaining, and their subsequent league fixture after their meeting with the Posh is a home clash against Crawley Town on Good Friday (18th April).

Birmingham are still to factor in rescheduled dates for their trips to Stevenage and Blackpool, which will likely affect when they can be crowned champions.

As for Wolves' points record of 103, the Blues are predicted to eclipse that figure in their penultimate match against Mansfield Town.

League One projected points table

Team:	Current Points:	Predicted Points:
Birmingham City	82	106
Wycombe Wanderers	68	87
Wrexham	68	83
Charlton Athletic	63	79
Stockport County	62	77
Bolton Wanderers	60	76