Both the Miami Heat and the Orlando Magic crashed out in the first round of last season’s play-offs, losing 4-1 to the Boston Celtics and 4-3 to the Cleveland Cavaliers respectively, and will be hoping for better this time around.
This represents a tricky opener for each side, however, given just one win separated the pair in last term’s Eastern Conference standings, and a cagey affair may play out at the Kaseya Center in the early hours of Thursday morning.
Miami Heat ML - 10/13
Despite a quiet off-season in terms of trades, the Miami Heat look set for a far better campaign than they enjoyed last term thanks to a clever draft pick and they should certainly improve if handed some kinder injury luck.
The Heat finished eighth in the East last season but will be aiming for a top-six seed this time as they bid to avoid the play-in tournament. Rookie Kel’el Ware should offer a nice back-up option at the centre spot and they may improve on their 46-win haul from last season.
Tyler Herro played only 42 games last term while star man Jimmy Butler also missed 22 regular-season matches. Those two are fit for Miami’s opener, however, and they may have too much for their rivals on Thursday morning.
The Orlando Magic were a surprise package last season, finishing an impressive fifth in the East, but while their young squad should only improve with time, a negative record (1-3) against the Heat suggests that Miami represent a poor matchup for Jamahl Mosley’s side.
The main reason for that is that Erik Spoelstra, head coach of the Heat, is an expert at setting up defences to stop teams getting to the rim. The Magic’s average field-goal distance of 13.2ft was the shortest in the NBA last season, highlighting why they tend to struggle against their Florida rivals, who ranked second best at limiting rim attempts last term.
Bam Adebayo is one of the best defensive centres in the league while Ware represents a more-than-capable backup. Expect the Heat to stifle Orlando once more and open with a win for the second season running.
Under 208.0 - 10/11
Both of these sides’ greatest strengths lie in defence, suggesting points may be at a premium in Miami.
The Magic’s defensive rating of 111.3 was only bettered by the Minnesota Timberwolves’ 109.0 last season while the Heat also ranked in the top five for that statistic with an impressive figure of 112.2.
Furthermore, both Miami and Orlando ranked in the bottom six for pace last term, with 96.2 and 96.9 respectively, meaning they have less possessions per 48 minutes than the majority of the teams in the league.
208.0 is a low line, but both sides are clearly happy to defend with grit and grind and a low-scoring clash may play out at the Kaseya Center as a result.
Two of the last three meetings between the pair have seen less than 208 points - each of those having under 200 - and with few roster changes and the same coaches in place, a similar match may play out on Thursday morning.
Jaime Jaquez Jr over 11.5 points - 7/2
The Heat’s starting five can be inconsistent shooters to say the least. Herro is an excellent three-point shooter on his day but that day has not come too often of late while Butler and Adebayo have the capability to rack up points but, again, they tend to do so sparingly.
In addition to that, the Magic’s starting five, Jalen Suggs, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, and Wendell Carter Jr, is made up of excellent defenders. Therefore, it may be best to back a Miami bench option in the points market for Thursday’s clash.
Jaime Jaquez Jr represents the best value with that in mind and his standard line of over 7.5 points looks more than achievable and can be backed at 10/11. However, those seeking a bigger price should definitely consider his high line of 11.5, especially as he has hit it in his last two appearances against the Magic.
The young guard scored 19 points in his first home appearance against Orlando before notching 12 in his next clash with the Magic in Miami, suggesting he relishes these all-Florida showdowns.
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Money Line | Spread | Over/Under | |
Heat | 10/13 | -2.0 – 10/11 | Under 208.0 – 10/11 |
Magic | 11/10 | +2.0 – 10/11 | Over 208.0 - 10/11 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.