Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions - AFL Grand Final: Prediction, Tips and Odds

After another long and thrilling campaign, the 2024 AFL season concludes with the Grand Final on Saturday, when the Sydney Swans and Brisbane Lions battle it out for the title.

Both of these two teams have suffered final heartbreak in recent years, with the Swans losing to Geelong in 2022 and Brisbane being beaten by Collingwood last year.

One of them, though, will be celebrating this weekend, with the pair battling it out to lift the AFL Premiership Cup at the MCG.

Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions betting tips and predictions

Handicap - Brisbane Lions +3 - 91/100

Brisbane Lions have had to play a game more than their opponents, having finished outside the top four in the regular season standings.

Sydney finished top of the ladder, with a 17-6 record, and because of that and their smoother run to the final, are the favourites to take the title.

But the build-up has been far from smooth for the Swans, with injury concerns in the run-up to this weekend’s showpiece in Melbourne.

Captain Callum Mills has been struggling with a hamstring problem, which saw him miss the Preliminary Final success over Port Adelaide.

The skipper looks set to miss out on the final, while there have also been concerns for the Swans over tall forward Logan McDonald.

The 22-year-old collected an ankle injury last Friday and although he is expected to feature, McDonald might not be 100% fit.

It was the Lions who won their only previous meeting this season, 79-77 in Week 19, and they will take a lot out of that success going into the final.

Another key factor could be Brisbane’s 10-point win over Geelong last week, which took place at this week’s final venue, the MCG.

Team Goalscorer - Sydney Swans: Isaac Heeney - 17/2

One man who could play a key role for the Swans, who are looking for a first AFL title since 2012, is Isaac Heeney.

The midfielder has scored 33 goals this season and averaged 4.5 marks per game, stats that helped him become a two-time All-Australian.

Sydney trio Heeney, Chad Warner and Errol Gulden have been involved in 150 of the 355 goals that the Swans have scored this season.

The 28-year-old scored two goals in the comfortable win over Port Adelaide last week and went one better in the 88-82 qualifying victory over the GWS Giants.

Match Goals (Bands) 25-26 - 9/2

The last two AFL Grand Finals have seen 25 and 28 goals kicked and it looks set to be a similar total again in the 2024 showpiece.

When you work out the average for the last six finals, there have been 24.16 goals per Grand Final.

Only one of those finals (Melbourne v Western Bulldogs in 2021) has seen over 30 goals scored and that was at the smaller Optus Stadium - with the MCG the biggest ground on the AFL roster.

There were 26 goals in Brisbane’s qualifying win over Carlton and 22 in Sydney’s Preliminary final success over Port Adelaide.

There were also 22 goals when these two teams met back in July, with both teams score 11 times each.

Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions odds

Sydney Swans - 39/50
Brisbane Lions - 21/20

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.