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ATP Finals betting tips: Novak Djokvoic to take some stopping in Turin

Iga Swiatek was the star of the show in last week’s WTA Finals, with the Polish phenomenon defeating Jessica Pegula to take the title, and now it is the turn of the men to strut their stuff in the ATP Finals at the Pala Alpitour in Turin.

This season-ending spectacular has gone the way of Novak Djokovic on six occasions, which includes at this Italian venue last year, and the world number one will have high hopes of defending his crown following an irresistible run of form.

The super Serb has won his last 18 matches, claiming three straight title successes in Cincinnati, the US Open and in Paris, so it will take an almighty performance from one of his rivals to thwart him.

Djokovic is housed in the Green Group alongside Jannik Sinner, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Holger Rune and would be expected to stamp his authority.

The Red Group looks a little more competitive, though, with Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Andrey Rublev and Alexander Zverev doing battle and the top two from each section will progress to the semi-finals.

With Alcaraz’s performances having dipped and Medvedev being blighted by inconsistencies, there is the potential for an upset in that round-robin group.

Aaron Ashley’s tips

  • 3pts Novak Djokovic to win ATP Finals @ 11/8
  • 0.5pt each-way Andrey Rublev to win ATP Finals @ 14/1
  • 1pt Andrey Rublev to win Red Group @ 4/1

Dominant Djokovic difficult to dislodge

The records continue to be broken by Djokovic and the Serb will be looking to make another piece of history in Turin with victory in this campaign-closing event.

Last season’s ATP Finals victory moved Djokovic level on six tournament wins with Roger Federer and at 11/8 he remains excellent value to make it a successful title defence.

Since losing to Alcaraz in the Wimbledon final in July, the 36-year-old has been playing like a man possessed, showing that despite his advancing years he remains the man to beat.

Losing that All England Club final was a painful blow for Djokovic, not only because he was chasing a fifth straight Wimbledon win, but it also saw him replaced at world number one by the Spanish youngster.

However, as the best so often do, Djokovic has responded superbly to that setback with 18 straight wins and has taken three consecutive titles along the way.

Landing his 24th Grand Slam title at the US Open was the highlight, but he also returned to action after a six-week break to capture his seventh Paris Masters title last Sunday.

That shows he is holding his form well and suggests he may still be relatively fresh despite this tournament coming at the back end of a gruelling campaign.

With Djokovic having won all four meetings with Sinner - three in straight sets - and him also leading fellow group rivals Tsitsipas 11-2 in their personal series, it is difficult to see a way in which he won’t top the section.

Rune is the other group opponent but the Danish 20-year-old is making his tournament debut and has struggled with injuries this season, while he was also beaten by Djokovic in Paris most recently.

The world number one can top the Green Group, which he is 4/7 to do, and then he would face the Red Group runner-up for a place in the final. Expect Djokovic’s dominance to continue at Pala Alpitour.

Rublev could serve up biggest threat

Wimbledon champion Alcaraz and US Open runner-up Medvedev are the two big names in the Red Group, but there are legitimate grounds to be taking both of them on.

Alcaraz has made no secret of the fact that he is feeling the impacts of a taxing season, which may go some way to explain why he has lost three of his last five matches and has failed to win any of his six tournament appearances since lifting Wimbledon.

Medvedev is proving to be equally hit-and-miss this season and is without silverware since winning in Rome in May, which is 11 tournaments ago, so his Russian compatriot Rublev could be the answer.

Rublev was a semi-finalist in this event last year, an experience that should stand him in good stead to go at least one better, and he has been holding his form well.

The 26-year-old finished runner-up in Shanghai in the middle of October, was a semi-finalist in Vienna and then repeated the feat in Paris, before losing 5-7 7-6 7-5 in the last four to Djokovic.

That is evidence of what he is capable of and that narrow defeat to Djokovic hints at another positive performance in Turin.

Zverev is another lively outsider but the German has lost four of his last five meetings with Rublev, so the Russian may hold the aces and at 4/1 is overpriced for Red Group supremacy. That also points to an each-way bet in the outright market at 14/1.

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