Arnold Palmer Invitational tips, predictions and odds

The PGA TOUR's fourth Signature Event of the season is almost upon us with the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and Mike Glasscott has three bets to follow.

Arnold Palmer Invitational tips

To Win – Will Zalatoris (30/1)

Top 10 – Max Homa (23/10)

Top 20 – Taylor Moore (16/5)

Bay Hill course guide

The halfway point of the Florida Swing is also the halfway point of eight Signature Events on the 2024 calendar.

Known as one of the most difficult tests on TOUR, the Par-72, stretching 7,466 yards, nothing comes easy this week. 

Ranking in the top 10 most difficult tracks used on TOUR in six of the last seven seasons, Bay Hill has not played under par since the 2016 edition, the first with brand-new TifEagle Bermuda greens. The 2020 tournament played two shots over par; the most difficult venue used during that season.

Fairways and greens are challenging targets to acquire. Arnold Palmer’s design has ranked in the top five during the last five seasons in SG: Tee to Green. Errant tee shots and approaches could find three inches of overseeded (rye) Bermuda, 84 bunkers, or water penalty areas (nine holes).

Putting the TifEagle Bermuda greens, the fourth largest on TOUR at 7,500 square feet on average, challenge matching line and speed at 12 feet on the Stimpmeter.

Arnold Palmer Invitational preview

Top of the Board  

Scottie Scheffler (13/2): I’m not one to usually support favourites, but I’m close to making an exception this week. Cashing T4 in defence of his 2022 victory, he knows elite putting is not required this week. With 19 top-three paydays to his name since the 2021-2022 season, place him where you feel most comfortable.

Rory McIlroy (9/1): In the last 10 days, he’s played Capital One’s The Match, four rounds at the Cognizant Classic (T21), and the Seminole Pro-Member. He wanted reps before Augusta. He’s getting reps before Augusta! A true course horse, the 2018 winner is a constant in the top 10 outside Orlando. The finish line is the Masters, not Bay Hill.

Sitting as third choice, Viktor Hovland (14/1) is still searching for his first top 10 of 2024. The Norwegian has been lurking the last two seasons at the top of the leaderboard outside Orlando. Playing in the final group last year, he shot 76 to drift to T10. The 36-hole leader in 2022 closed 75-74 for T2.

Xander Schauffele (16/1) has yet to find the key to success at Bay Hill. The West Coast wizard started hot, but he’s never cracked the code in Florida. Supporters this week will hope the third time is the first time inside the top 20.

Patrick Cantlay (16/1) adapted quickly on debut last season. Posting three rounds below par, he finished T4 after his first four loops. Cashing T4 at Riviera and T11 at Pebble Beach in his last two outings, taking that form to Florida will be necessary again.

Granted a sponsor’s exemption as an amateur as a college senior last spring, Ludvig Åberg (18/1) is now one of the favorites in a Signature Event in his first full season on TOUR. Posting nothing worse than 73, the amateur cashed T24 against one of the best fields in golf. Cashing his last three on TOUR inside the top 20, he will enjoy another ball-striking challenge this week.

Sharing fourth in his first two visits at Bay Hill, Jordan Spieth (20/1) makes his third visit in the last four years. Leading on the back nine on Sunday last year, the Texan ran out of gas at the finish line. Cashing T6 or better in his last three visits on Bermuda, his last victory was on the same surface at Harbour Town in 2022.

Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action:

Max Homa (25/1): Wins at Quail Hollow, Torrey Pines, and Riviera suggest 7,466 yards isn’t out of the question. Making his fifth start, he’s cashed T24 or better in the previous four. Invest.

Will Zalatoris (30/1): Making his fourth appearance, the former Wake Forest Deamon Deacon roars into Bay Hill after finishing second at The Genesis Invitational. The return to familiar grass should bring familiar results.

Jason Day (33/1): The red-hot Aussie bumps into my purview due to his previous history at Bay Hill. The 2016 champion, and former resident of Lake Nona ran T10 last year and rolls into town after back-to-back top-10 paydays on the West Coast Swing.

Adam Scott (50/1): Every lineup/card/ticket needs a safety dance. The Australian, a sponsor’s exemption this week, will not want to embarrass those who shoved him into the field. All aboard! Posting T20 or better in his last three on TOUR, he’s not a novelty act.

Corey Conners (55/1): Putting is not an afterthought this week, but I’ll side with the guys who will hit the most greens. Keeping it out of the water and bunkers will produce more scoring chances.

Keegan Bradley (55/1): Cashing in 11 straight at Arnold’s place, his last three here are T10-T11-T10.

Justin Rose (110/1): Formerly a resident, the Englishman has experienced plenty of reps around Bay Hill. Comfortably flying beneath the radar, let’s hope his allergies don’t get the best of him!

Taylor Moore (200/1): Defending in two weeks at Innisbrook, this is another track that requires concentration for each shot. Cashing in his last nine on TOUR, I’ll embrace his number for either a Top 20 or Top 40.

Angles

Debuting as host in 1979, Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club has anchored the late winter/early spring schedule on TOUR.

2023 champion Kurt Kitayama joins 1990 winner Robert Gamez as the only player to win on debut.

After changing the greens from Bentgrass to TifEagle Bermuda after the 2015 edition, international players won the next five editions.

Attaining elevated status in 2021, American players have won the last three at Bay Hill.

Winning as a 21-year-old in 1990, Robert Gamez is the youngest champion by three years.

The last four winners ranged from 26 to 30 years old. Only two of the last eight have been older than 30.

The tournament scoring record, produced in perfect scoring conditions by Rory McIlroy during the 2018 edition, is 270 (-18).

McIlroy and Keegan Bradley have posted 64, the lowest single-round total since 2016.

The field of 69, including 44 of the Official World Golf Ranking Top 50, will be cut to the top 50 and ties, plus any player within 10 shots of the lead, after 36 holes.

On the line is a purse of $20 million, with the winner taking home $4 million plus 700 FedExCup points.

All odds correct at time of publishing and subject to fluctuation.