Everton currently lie third from bottom in the Premier League and are now Evens to be relegated from the top flight for the first time since 1951 and bet365 are betting on the points total of the side finishing 18th this season with the line set at Over/Under 35.5.
Original article published 29 August 2022
Managers often talk about the fabled 40-point mark as the total needed for safety, with only West Ham being relegated in a 38-game season with more than 40 points, but as the disparity between top and bottom in the Premier League grows, 35 points is often more than enough.
In the last five seasons, Bournemouth, Cardiff and Hull all finished 18th on 34 points, with Swansea going down on 33 and Fulham last season achieving a meagre 28.
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35 points however may not be enough this season. Everton’s run-in has been well-documented, and they’ll certainly be eyeing up the clashes with Watford, Brentford and Crystal Palace. Currently on 29 points, they may well need seven points from those games.
Burnley are perhaps in the more enviable position, knowing, on 31 points, two wins might be all they need to stay up from their games against Watford, Aston Villa twice, Tottenham and Newcastle.
It seems a matter of time now for Watford, who won’t be troubling the 35.5 points line, needing to win all five of their remaining games to clear the total.
| Date | Burnley | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Sat 30th April - 3pm | Watford v Burnley | |
| Sun 1st May - 2pm | Everton v Chelsea | |
| Sat 7th May - 3pm | Burnley v Aston Villa | |
| Sun 8th May - 2pm | Leicester v Everton | |
| Wed 11th May - 7.45pm | Watford v Everton | |
| Sun 15th May - 12pm | Tottenham v Burnley | |
| Sun 15th May - 2pm | Everton v Brentford | |
| Thu 19th May - 7.45pm | Everton v Crystal Palace | |
| Thu 19th May - 8pm | Aston Villa v Burnley | |
| Sun 22nd May - 4pm | Burnley v Newcastle | Arsenal v Everton |
Back in January when we first opened this market, we were asking whether the side finishing in 18th would break the lowest points total record of 28 set by Fulham the season before because the bottom four of Burnley, Newcastle, Norwich and Watford were cut adrift.
Between them, they’d won just nine of their combined 57 games, and none of them looked like being able to propel themselves to safety.
But three months later and the new-look Newcastle had done just that, establishing themselves as one of the form teams in the league, incredibly challenging for the top half and Burnley stringing some results together when the Clarets looked down and out under Sean Dyche.
The upturn in form of these two teams has coincided with Everton losing nine of their last 13 and staring relegation in the face.
On a positive note, the Toffees have won 3 and drawn 1 of their last 4 at home against Sunday’s visitors Chelsea, in a game where they could start 5 points behind Burnley.
Frank Lampard will need Goodison Park rocking against his former club.
Total Points of Team Finishing 18th:
Over 35.5 - 5/6
Under 35.5 - 5/6
